S&P 500 Could Easily Drop Another 20%

Seems like we are really up for a free fall to more reasonable valuations.

Source: http://blog.trendarchitect.com/sp-500-could-easily-drop-another-20/

 

FTSE was on a P/E of 17 but the deniers would not have it-why the heck would you pay 130% for something? Dreamers think they can buy stocks and retire, I'm sorry for them-it is NOT that simple

 

it really is that simple if you are a young dreamer.

 

If I see a reference to the word "support" and an accompanying chart, then red flags pop up, as to the ability to test such a premise empirically ( ie the "finding" is being derived from interpretation ) becomes difficult

 

see, the idea is to accumulate as many shares as you can when prices are cheap. What is cheap? It's cheaper than it was.

 

I hate making predictions -- that's not my arena or game.

But since the Dow is down roughly -8% YTD, and it's only Jan 16...I think it may finish the year around -20%, to put it somewhat conservatively mildly.

(we had a six year bull run already from 2009-2014...it can only go up so much. and last year was its first slightly negative year...possibly a taste of things to come...)

 

how come no one said this stuff when you had the markets much higher early December.

 

I have been saying this for ages

 

I don't think the S&P 500 is going to slide that much, but the global outlook does look gloomy. The number one problem appears to be the souring investment sentiment out in China that has hurt financial markets across the globe.
There was also panicked selling of U.S. equities due to the 6 percent drop in price of U.S. produced crude oil. This is the first time in 12 years a barrel of crude oil has dipped below $30.
Financial professionals have also been inclined to sell equities recently given the Fed's interest rate hike. As the Fed tightens, it gives a dismal outlook for the future of the economy and so analysts will continue to recommend the sale of equities.
There appears to be significant downside risk!

 

A ton of people have been calling that lower high in the S&P and Dow in December as a selling point but I don't think anybody believed them especially on the first day of the year 2016 (after December). Many of them are the same folks giving their economic analysis via saying the top was in place around May but that little rebound in the fall kind'uv quiet things down for a little bit.

Yet, I don't remember anyone predicting the impact of China as a catalyst because most were concentrating on the FED and Oil as the catalyst.