Since the lows in October 2005, the DJIA has now been up 15 of the last 19 months, the S&P 500 up 17 of the last 19 months, up 14 of the last 16 quarters -- quite the winning streak. In the case of the S&P, the present streak of 17 of 19 months to the upside rivals some of the best prior winning streaks in both overall time duration and the concentration of advancing months. Some of the prior âBest Streaksâ were between September 1998 and March 2000, a period where the S&P advanced 11 out of 18 months, November 1994 to May 1996, a period where the S&P advanced 14 out of 18 months, September 1985 to August 1987, a period where the S&P advanced 16 of 23 months, and December 1974 to September 1976, where the S&P advanced 12 of 21 months. In addition, since 1960, the S&P 500 has never gone longer than 40 months without a 10% correction. In the table below, we show the longest streaks the S&P 500 has managed to go without encountering a correction of at least 10%. Start Date Duration End Date 10/31/1962 40 Months 1/31/1966 10/31/1990 39 Months 1/31/1991 7/31/1984 24 Months 8/29/1986 12/31/1987 24 Months 12/29/1989 7/31/1996 23 Months 6/30/1998 10/30/1998 18 Months 3/31/2000 8/31/1982 15 Months 10/31/1983 3/31/2003 50 Months Present ?
In the "Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$" thread the OP states there hasnt been a drop of 2% in day for 900 odd days. A few weeks after the thread was created we see the intra day 2% drop, actually more like 4%. If this thread is anything to go by the market will probably start a 10% or 20% correction in a few weeks.
There might be some "small sample bias" in your data sample if you've only gone as far back as 1960. You could go much farther back with the Dow Industrials and Dow Rails/Transports for more "confirmation".
Lets see how this plays out, maybe a correction is near. Posted last Friday since than the DOW has given up nearly 300+ points.