On Friday we gapped up overnight. Then the price dropped so we filled the gap in the morning (kinda) Then made new highs on the close pretty strong to the upside!
Just go back over earnings the last week and see how many companies met and how many missed or came in line. Then look at the guidance for the next quarter. You will be able to see in essence whether corporate profits are sliding, or continuing forward. Equities lead the indices. Next you have to evaluate whether money supply is going to continue to grow. If it does, the market will keep going up to stay in line with inflation. The market has been giving fake gains relative to the fall in buying power in the usd. Then relative to these two issues you could form an opinion and go all in, put a second on your house and go all in. Buying puts do not give you the most profit for down markets. You will see the market falling but your options not moving as much. If you want to best risk reward just trade futures, or the stock indexes.
I have no intention of shorting here but I will be watching closely for any weakness in the next few days. I'll look into what you said.