S&P 500 view

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by luvmoney, Jun 25, 2003.

  1. luvmoney


    I have been a bear for years. I don't understand the dynamics or reason for this rally, but despite my bearish bias, the market technicals show that we go higher. Against my own bearish instincts, I am looking to go long. see chart:
  2. TGregg


    And the results show a pop. Good? Bad? Dunno, depends on one's style. This was posted 6/25, when ES closed at 972, reached a low of 960.25 before a high of 1014.75.
  3. I would like to say I am a technical trader. I trade the ES, but I follow some market fundamentals too. I subscribe to some newsletters and cannot reprint with copy and paste as I could loose my subscriptions. But I put different information together and come up with some of my own stuff to help form which side of the market I will be scalping and swinging with.

    Lets look at something:

    This is Sunday and the close on Friday left us with Nas 100 at 12610.50 and the SP at 978.

    The Media and perhaps the gov't is spinning some incorrect interpretations of solid data. In an attempt to goose the economy for the re-election of Pres Bush or for whatever other reason. This week there were reports that productivity grew more than twice as fast in the second quarter as in the previous 3 months as the economy accelerated, suggesting a boost in corporate profits that may lead to more hiring. Since productivity is a function of "UNIT LABOR COSTS" the simple truth is that productiity rose dramatically. in the second quarter because unemployment rose dramatically. Layoffs=saving direct to the bottom line.....so the only "GROWTH FACTOR" was growing unemployment.

    Now if you do not agree....lets look at something else about this recovery. The Gov't decided to change some not widely known computations of the GDP growth figures. We have got a 1.4% and 2.4% GDP in the first and second quarters using a 1% price deflator...WHY NOT THE USUAL AND WIDELY ACCEPTED 2.4% CPI FIGURE? But even that figure is grossly understated. Anyways, if it were used so we could compare apples to apples we would have a 1% GDP...bad for Bushy and the war. Hey, I am for the War and all, and Pres Bush did a great job.....but we got to get ready for the slingshot effect of this non realistic bubble were trying to get started up again, for whatever reason. Remember you can throw a ball up in the air and try to keep it up there, but you can't keep it up there forever. Now I am not a Bear or a Bull, I just run with them in the direction they are going. I am not in the Business of Forecasting, I just find it helpfull to play more contracts in my decided direction than going the other way. When the 1 min bars are showing a nice Weighted MA trend and I have my fundamental direction bias in agreement, I will bet more contracts.

    Just another observation.....In the early stages of recovery following the 1974 and 1982 recessions capacity utilization improved dramatically as the unemployment rate fell. This is not the case now..... capacity utilization which is a better measure of economc expansion remains near it's 20-year lows. Granted we are in an information age and this economy is not the same as 1974 and 1982.

    Michael B.
  4. The latest Investors Intelligence Survey.......bullish newsletter writers fell to 51.5%

    And the bearish newsletter writers rose slightly to 20.8%

    Michael B.
  5. Since some recent artiles are citing that retail investors are gaining volume

    The AAII survey results (American Association of Individual Investors) should be interesting but I do not use them much. It is just a small sampling of their total memebership.

    But here are some survey results:

    Bulls ....no change at 51.5%

    Bear....decrease to 16%

    Don't ask me to interpret this....I call it neutral in direction this time and do not put much overall weight to it....

    Michael B.
  6. Well, our market vane report survey reveals what I thought....


    Michael B.
  7. For this week .......I would use this. Would someone post next weekend what the results of this is....

    S&P commercial hedgers sold 15,670 S&P contracts bringing them NET short -55,355 contracts. large traders remained NET short -31,665 contracts, with an entire NET offsetting position of +87,020 contracts held by small traders.

    NAS Futures commercials 700 bringing net to -19570 contracts
    small traders were net long +14,405 nas contracts.

    Dow futures saw commercial smart money increasing long positions by 600 contrats to a net long of +14,717 Dow contracts.

    soooo....commercial hedgers remain net short in the S&P and the Nas. Now the weak hands(small traders) remain heavily net long in the S&P and Nas. That massive incrase by the commercials og 15k contracts is BEARISH for this week.

    Now Walmart! to confuse this bearish thread...here try this.

    Wal mart is the worlds largest company based on sales. The last 6 months the markets character and Wal Mart have been correlating. Wal Mart is leading the SPX around at it's important turning points. WMT closed above resistance on friday at 57.50. So this could be taken as a BULLISH SIGN.....go tell this to the newly formed chatroom in indexfutures...if they will allow you to talk about stocks!

    Michael B.
  8. Hey I remind me of a CNBC Anal...lyst talking to myself and Forecasting.....sheesh

    Michael B.