Bought 2 blocks at 17.43 on an oversold hourly ahead of the 9am research meeting occuring at Santa Clara Headquarters.
Mike, The breach of 10978 on the Dow from last week was a key technical that resulted in the downtrend. Ideally, the next bargain hunting catagory will be commence around the 10600. In sum, there is still plenty of goodness and breath in this market... It's going to be a "stock picking" type of market. In the tech sector, I like the following: 1. Ebay's potential earnings and revenues from Skypes is no longer sepculation but reality. The site is gaining members in the thousands, daily. 2. Yahoo's stake in Yahoo Japan and Alibaba.com is 30%. This fact has no been factored in the stock's price share as of yet...and analysts have been on ignore. YHOO's invasion into paid advertisement is far superior than Google. 3. Intel... Yes, Intel! I understand that it has been a lagger but the more negative sentiment, the more shares I'm buying. Wait till Woodcrest, Monroe, and Konroe chips start shipping in the next few months. 4. Apple is beginning to look attractive here in the 50s with covered calls hedging. In the oil sector, I'm in love with TSO. It's the cheapest and it's trading at 7 times 2006 earnings. However, our relationship with Iran is improving; that said, I would not be unhedged with the shares alone!
It is very evident now that Intel's price cuts are hurting AMD. Intel has priced its Pentium D and Celeron products below AMD's Athlon and Sempron. That said, vendors remain confident about a seasonal pick-up during the third-quarter due largely to Intel's new processor and platform launches, as well as price cuts. Furthermore, Intel sold 14.7% of the world's microchips last year, according to Gartner, almost twice the share of No. 2 ranked Samsung Electronics and exponentially more than the 1.7% global share that AMD held. It will spend $5.6 billion on R&D this year, compared with $5.1 billion last year and $4.8 billion for 2004. AMD's R&D spending is expected to be around $1.1 billion this year, flat with last year and up from $934 million for 2004. I understand the frustration that longs have experienced since January 17,2006 (When INTC surprised the street by dissapointing on both revenues an earnings without a prior warning). But, the stock is so unvervalued and cheap now that every dip is a buying opportunity.
I view today's upside as a chance to take out the 2.10 resistance. If 2.10 is taken out, the stock is in good shape to test the next resistance of 2.60. Thereafter, it looks like that gap on March 27, 2006 from 3.57 to 3.37 may fill and propel the stock higher. Shorterm is very critical...At 1.85, it appear that the stock closed on an inflection point. I would watch it very carefully tomorrow during the first 30min of trading.
I noticed that you wrote at least about another stock the same thing: "every dip is a buying opportunity". The problem is that you need to stay on a pile of cash to keep adding when these opportunities happen, like now when the market took a dive. You fill up and can't take more and even better "opportunities". Would you care to share what positions do you have in your portfolio now, what's your investments' time horizon, what percentage of your account is in cash?
You have to mention the stock you're writing about in your message too, not only in the subject line... if you want to make it easier on your readers.
In regards to the fundamentals, the book value per share comes to about .35 cents. Here is what I found troubling: their total cash per share is .24 versus a total debt/equity of .19 Theyre in too much debt; that coupled with a negative operating cash flow of -9.00 million is not a stock I would prefer to invest in. It's also interesting to note the price differential between different institutions and top company holders. Mutual fund holders are: Reynolds Fund which bought 40,000 at .04 on 3/31/06. Apex MID-CAP Growth Fund has 2,000 at .00 3/31/06 Imagine if they decide to dump their shares?! But, their shares are nothing compared to Polygen Investment Partners LLP who own 534,085 at .60 It appears that the above positions were as recent as 3/31/06. Is something magic about that date? I don't think these institutions are likely to dump soon.
I understand that dollar-cost-averaging has been frustrating in the past, as stock continued to make lower lows and lower highs. But, there still lots of goodness in our markets at large. I will state my holdings. However, for discretionary reasons, I will not specify the amount of shares. The following long core holdings are in either my hedge fund and/or other private managed accounts: A. My largest holding is INTC with an average price of 18.35 B. EBAY at an average cost of 31 C. YAHOO at an average cost of 32 D. TSO at an average of 61 E. NEM at an average of 43 F. AAPL at an average of 52 G. TOL at an average of 27 H. HOV at an average of 35 I hedge the above postions through variety of strategic options play. D.