Yesterday's close abov 17.70 was favorable. Had it closed below the opening of 17.57, then matters could have been problematic for the stock. Nevertheles, a revesit to th lows is in the cards. 2nd quarter earnings ae not very promising.
Today's strength (TOL) is challenging the monthly resistance of 26.90 to 27.10. Though outer bar reversals are quite evident, the stock is severely oversold on a technical basis ad undervalued fundamentally. The entire sector trades at a discount of 7 times 2006 earnings. The trim im estimates for the remainder of the year has laready been factored in in the share price. The stock is down a staggering 60% from the 52 week high of 57.50. Moreover, TOL's cloe alliance with many Joint Venture Capital Firms is aiding them in buying and elling land very quickly to flip profits for the company.
Quote: Originally Posted by Jack Haddad, 5/31/06 1045AM Bought 3 blocks at 31.57, and wrote 300 calls at 2.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bought back 300 June 30.00 calls at .40 and wrote the July 30.00 for 1.65
I and many of my fellow colleague managers are advising clients to sell this rally. Technicals at this time remain uncertain due to very oversold conditions. The downtrend on the Dow which began as a result of Dow breaching 10078 is till intact. I'm not regarding today's upside as a reversal in the trend. I'll be looking for short set-ups on particular picks (BA), and also some very undervalued stock which have not moved much in the last couple of days (EBAY).
Yesterday, the company (INTC) bought 560k shares betwen 17.33 to 17.50 pre-trading hours; that explains the heavy volume of 111 million. I'm not thrilled about INTC's behavior to support a bullish trend. Today's upside is particularly questionable on below average volume.
ADBE lower estimes or 2006 profit and revenue on weaker demand for its content-creation products. The stock is a strong sell fundamentally and will retest lower lows and breach the 52 week. It's unfortunate that one cannot short in after-hours trading.
I remain convinced that were in a bear market rally. I estimate that the Dow at 11,000 is a major wall of resistance, and the S&P 500 would be 1240-1255. Also, financial stocks are in a major trouble. Take a look at the 3-month chart of C, BAC, PNC, WB, JPM, STI, and CBH. Theyre a screaming sell. And, of ourse, do not forget about emerging markets-- The sell-off ain't over yet.
Quote: 6/02/06, 12:13PM Originally Posted by Jack Haddad Wrote 100 June 30.00 calls at 1.55/contract to hedge against my shares which I nought earlier at 30.61 Bought back 100 June 30.00 calls at .05 and wrote 100 July 27.50 calls at .95/contract