Discussion in 'Politics' started by Port1385, Aug 9, 2008.
I cant even make this stuff up.
What does South Ossetia do that anyone other than Georgia or Russia cares about?
The war is unfortunate, but wars over small things are nothing new.
The Oil should rally and the markets fall....
Maybe now some might care!
South Ossestia has a population of 70,000. Russia is telling the Georgians that they can not do whatever they what, likely telling them and the Ukrainians not to join NATO. No one is upset about it, it will probably be over before the Olympics. War is always tragic, but not always meaningful.
Russia is Targeting Pipelines...
1% of the World Oil comes from that region.
Russia has acted like a thug since the USSR collapsed, recently stealing assests from western european oil companies.
Georgia struck first and fired on Russian citizens, terrible but..
If you are into conspiracies, checkout Gerogia's weapons. US/Israel high tech, see if they know how to use it. They are up against it, we will see. Boarders both Iran and Russia, very important for such a small nation. With Russia's mafia like behavior I'm hoping Georgia sticks it to um.
Editorâs Note: The following is an internal Stratfor document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
The situation in Georgiaâs separatist region of South Ossetia appears to be clarifying. The Georgian Ministry of Defense and National Security Council have indicated that Georgian forces will withdraw from the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali. However, intense fighting is still reported. Partly this may be due to the fact that some troops have not gotten the word. Some of it may also have to do with Georgian forces being surrounded and having to fight their way out, while South Ossetian and Russian forces want to force them to surrender on the spot. Reports reaching Stratfor indicate that some Georgian troops might have been killed after surrendering, which decreases the motivation of others to surrender directly.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin also has appeared in the area, in the neighboring Russian region of North Ossetia. That indicates that the Russians are feeling confident. It is also extremely noteworthy that it was Putin, and not President Dmitri Medvedev, who appeared.
There appears to be increasing tension in the area of Abkhazia, another Georgian separatist enclave friendly with Russia. The Abkhazians are stronger than the South Ossetians and most indications are that Georgia is maintaining superior forces in Abkhazia. It is extremely difficult to believe that the Georgians have any appetite for another round, but not difficult at all to believe that the Abkhaz and their Russian allies see the current crisis as an opportunity to formalize Abkhaz independence as well. The real question at the moment is how far the Russians are prepared to go. We doubt that they intend to invade and subordinate Georgia directly. They certainly intend to intimidate Tbilisi. The question is, to what extent?
Some major questions remain open.
First, what motivated the Georgians to invade South Ossetia on the night of Aug. 7? Why did they believe that they could do that without incurring a Russian response? Did the Russians indicate to them some form of nonbelligerence and then double-cross them?
The second, even more intriguing, question is the American role in all of this. The United States has hundreds of advisers in Georgia and could not possibly have been ignorant of Georgian intentions. The United States also has ample means of technical intelligence with which it could have noted the Russian buildup and perhaps even known Moscowâs intentions. The United States is Georgiaâs patron. What happened in Tbilisi and Washington to allow the Georgians to walk into a Russian nutcracker? There are levels of intrigue here that we do not yet understand. In some ways they are more important than the final outcome.
i see dead people
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