Russia & Ukraine

Discussion in 'Politics' started by UsualName, Jan 18, 2022.

  1. As in all wars there is nasty stuff done on both sides by men.

    But in the case of Russia for example, or the Third Reich, much of that nasty stuff was the goal of the state and and an objective of the war rather than specific soldiers or units gone bad.

    Russia sees and apartment building filled with elderly and says "let's flatten that."

    Ukraine would be happy to be left alone.

    In general the Ukrainians are more likely to treat a captured soldier better than the Russians treat their own soldiers.

    In WW2, entire divisions and battalions of German's ultimately surrendered in Europe BUT in many/most instances the German commanders said they would only surrender to the Americans, not the Russians. There was a reason for that. I am talking about surrenders in the field, not at the negotiation table.
     
    #9261     Jan 23, 2023
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  2. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

     
    #9262     Jan 23, 2023
  3. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Russia’s ‘Elite’ Shadow Army Edges Into Complete Collapse
    https://news.yahoo.com/russia-elite-shadow-army-edges-190304315.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

    Tens of thousands of fighters rounded up to fight in Ukraine for Wagner Group, the Russian private mercenary fighting corps, have gone missing or died, according to a Russian non-governmental organization.

    While Wagner Group recruited approximately 50,000 fighters in recent months, including from prisons, only 10,000 fighters remain fighting at the front for Wagne
    r, Olga Romanova, the head of Russia Behind Bars, told My Russian Rights, according to The Moscow Times.

    “According to our data, 42-43 thousand [prisoners] were recruited by the end of December. Now they are, most likely, already over 50,000,” Romanova said. “Of these, 10,000 are fighting at the front, because all the rest are either killed… or missing, or deserted, or surrendered.”


    The statistic cited is just the latest indication that Wagner’s fighting force is falling apart in Ukraine, even as Russia works to secure wins on the battlefield almost one year after the invasion of Ukraine.

    Wagner Group fighters have been involved in the heavy fighting in Soledar in recent weeks, a town in which Russia has claimed victory. Wagner has also been largely responsible for gains made in Bakhmut nearby, “at an extraordinary cost,” given that many of the Wagner recruits had minimal training since Wagner recruited 40,000 convicts, John Kirby, a White House National Security Council coordinator, told reporters last week.

    Russia’s Wagner Group Accused of Ripping Off Grieving Families

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hinted at the dramatic losses the Russians are sustaining in Soledar in a recent speech as well.

    “The area near Soledar is covered with corpses of the invaders,” Zelensky said. “This is what madness looks like.”

    The U.S. Department of Defense has also assessed that Russian forces and Wagner have both suffered a tremendous losses.

    It is “significantly over 100,000 now,” Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters last week. “The Russians have suffered a tremendous amount of casualties in their military, and that includes their regular military and also their mercenaries, the Wagner Group, and other type forces that are fighting with the Russians.”

    There are indications that some of these losses may be desertions. Earlier this month, one former member of Wagner Group, Andrei Medvedev, was caught fleeing in Norway, the AFP reported. Medvedev, who has been arrested, is believed to be the first member of Wagner to defect to the West, according to the BBC.

    Medvedev has offered to share details about his experiences in the private mercenary group to help expose war crimes for investigators, the AFP reported. He has reportedly witnessed “deserters being executed” and “terroristic methods.”

    The Biden administration last week announced it is designating the Wagner Group as a “transnational criminal organization” in an attempt to interrupt Wagner’s supply and ability to do business around the globe.

    “Wagner is a criminal organization that is… committing widespread atrocities and human rights abuses, and we will work relentlessly to identify, disrupt, expose, and target those who are assisting Wagner,” the National Security Council’s Kirby said.

    News of Wagner’s disintegration comes as the mercenary group is experiencing trouble with the Kremlin as well. Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose military has faltered in Ukraine due to logistics and command and control failures, has been leaning on Wagner Group’s fighting power to try to make up for Russia’s armed forces’ failures in Ukraine for some time, according to a White House National Security Council assessment. But Putin and the leader of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, have been at loggerheads in recent days, with both contradicting each other and sniping that their fighting forces have been responsible for Soledar.

    Putin appears to have begun trying to shift the heft of Russia’s fighting back to the military in recent weeks. The president shook up the command of Russia’s armed forces earlier this month by promoting Gen. Valery Gerasimov, in an apparent attempt to inject some momentum into Russia’s military strategy.

    The recent shakeup has likely sidelined Wagner, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

    “Putin’s decision to focus and rely on conventional Russian forces is marginalizing the Wagner Group and the siloviki faction that nevertheless continues to contribute to Russian war efforts in Ukraine,” the ISW stated in an assessment this week.

    Gerasimov has begun his work by trying to improve the discipline of the armed forces in Russia, according to a British government intelligence assessment shared Monday.

    “Since he took command, officers have been attempting to clamp down on non-regulation uniform, travel in civilian vehicles, the use of mobile phones, and non-standard haircuts,” the intelligence assessment said. “The measures have been met with skeptical feedback. However, some of the greatest derision has been reserved for attempts to improve the standard of troops’ shaving.”
     
    #9263     Jan 23, 2023
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    gwb-trading



     
    #9264     Jan 24, 2023
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    gwb-trading

    Ukraine has a lengthy history of corruption -- because its original governing culture is built on Soviet & Russian practices. Zelensky is not putting up with this anymore while while a fledgling Ukrainian democracy fights for its survival.

    Zelenskiy ramps up anti-corruption drive as 15 Ukrainian officials exit
    Key officials have been dismissed or resigned since Saturday, with six facing corruption allegations
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...krainian-officials-exit?CMP=oth_b-aplnews_d-1
     
    #9265     Jan 24, 2023
  6. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    More Putin Math

     
    #9266     Jan 24, 2023
  7. Atlantic

    Atlantic

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/gl...he-long-goodbye-why-russia-is-losing-the-war/

    The Long Goodbye: Why Russia is losing the war

    Taking into account the relative strengths of the two armies, the state of the two countries’ economies, and the impact of sanctions on Russia’s finances, a three to four year war is realistic, writes Cristina Vanberghen.

    Prof. Dr Cristina Vanberghen is a Romania-born academic and political commentator and senior expert at the European Commission, with expertise in digitalisation, new technologies, and foreign policy.

    From Thermopylae to Waterloo, Troy to Pearl Harbour, sowing confusion has always been a calculated warfare strategy and Russia’s assault on Ukraine is no exception. We see it in Russia’s ‘will we or won’t we’ rhetoric on the use of its nuclear arsenal, a tool to ultimately to deter NATO’s involvement in the war.

    Assuming no nuclear deployments – and I consider it unlikely, given Russia’s ability to deploy other means of warfare – we face the perspective of a long, drawn-out conflict.

    Putin might not escalate, but buying time will support a war of attrition rather than accept failure. Experts consider that Russia has 1.3-1.5m tons of Soviet-era munition in storage, sufficient to last until May or June 2023 at the present bombardment rate, and a production capacity of around 500,000 tonnes per year.

    And taking into account the relative strengths of the two armies, the state of the two countries’ economies, and the impact of sanctions on Russia’s finances, a three to four year war is realistic.

    A far cry from Putin’s hubristic prediction of a four-day blitzkrieg ending in a Russian victory parade in the centre of Kyiv.

    That profound miscalculation has affected the course of the war and triggered the reconfiguration of Russia’s forces – for example, Special Operations’ troop deployment to large cities. Those forces achieved some immediate limited objectives but not to the extent of enabling conventional battalions to occupy those areas in a stable way.

    At the political level, Putin is trying to influence the UN agenda but has succeeded in being little more than a pariah, increasingly reminiscent of The Last Days of Hitler.

    Holed up in the bowels of the Kremlin, Putin sends out his unconvincing foreign minister to represent him before non-existent audiences in the middle of nowhere.

    Even the repeated attempts of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to win support from developing countries, especially in Africa, look like they are failing.

    Many African states have, despite erroneously regarding the war as a European theatre and, in some cases being dependent on Russian arms or diplomacy for their regional disputes, seen through Russia’s fake news narratives and its weaponisation of food supplies and call for Russian de-escalation for reasons of food security.

    The nuclear threat referred to earlier reflects a political brinkmanship on the Kremlin’s part bordering on the pathological, a type of delirium – the presentation of a narrative that belies the reality on the ground.

    The troop mobilisations of recent weeks are another sign that Russia is losing. Conscription – even if of unwilling minorities – represents an escalation in conventional military terms, mirrored across the words and posture of the Russian regime.

    There is no sign that this conflict will end. For both Ukraine and the West, the only solution that would be both acceptable and feasible is Russia’s complete withdrawal from Ukrainian soil, implying a change in Russia’s leadership and state structures.

    Putin’s 22-year pact with the Russian people – do not make political waves, and you will live comfortably – has run out of road. Conscription may be the straw that broke the camel’s back.

    It reflects not a viable military strategy but a new, faltering attempt to control a society increasingly in discord and a sapping of central power that weakens Putin’s position. With an increasing number of Russians either courageously speaking truth to power or fleeing the country, a victory is practically impossible.

    The fundamental question for Europe at this point is how to restore adherence to international law and restore peace on the continent.

    President Emmanuel Macron argued that “… one of the essential points we must address – as President Putin has always said – is the fear that NATO comes right up to its [Russia’s] doors…”.

    While this is a reasonable premise on which to assess the feasibility of starting a peace process, it does not answer the fundamental question: why did the war start and where it could lead?

    Russia did not invade Ukraine due to fear of NATO’s expansion because the Minsk Agreement gave Russia the guarantees needed.

    It invaded driven by the need to mount a foreign venture and distract from domestic instability and decline – what the great Cavafy called ‘Waiting for the Barbarians’.

    It invaded to reassert Russia’s desired place in the future global order. It is difficult to see the ending of a war which would allow Russia to regain the regional hegemony it yearns for while at the same time guaranteeing the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2023
    #9267     Jan 24, 2023
  8. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Plus the Germans...





     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2023
    #9268     Jan 24, 2023
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    #9270     Jan 24, 2023