The truth is the Russians have put themselves into a pickle. There is no good options for them. The Ukrainian coast of the Black Sea seems to be least best option but almost anyway they go is a loss for them at this point. Unless of course nato actually folds and agrees to make Eastern Europe Russia’s unfettered playground.
It will be one of those situations where it may take a year to find out what the real promises exchanged in the background are/were. As was the case with the Cuban missile crisis. The Americans/Kennedy claimed it as an outright victory- standing up to the Soviets and backing them down. In reality Kennedy agreed to cancel or withdraw various missile installations in Europe that were pointed at the Soviet Union. Similarly, Biden and Blinken and company insist that an agreement that the Ukraine will not become a member of Nato is not even up for discussion and that it is up to Ukraine and Nato members anyway. In reality the Americans are not interested in having the Ukraine as a member of Nato anyway so they are plenty ok giving assurances in the background on that.
Remember Joe Biden and Hunter Biden had shady dealings in Ukraine and they even twisted it to suggest that President Donald Trump pressured the Ukrainian President to investigate his son? Total hogwash. The real truth, Joe Biden pressured Ukraine and threatened to withhold aid when the investigator was digging into Hunter Biden's activities in Ukraine. The Ukraine President fired the investigator who was investigating Hunter Biden for corruption and Joe Biden was caught on video saying he got the investigator fired yet, the FBI and DOJ did nothing to investigate Joe Biden and his activities in Ukraine? Maybe, Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden still had huge financial interests in Ukraine?
Alexei Navalny warns the US is falling into Putin's trap on Ukraine 'like a frightened schoolboy' "Time and again the West falls into Putin's elementary traps," Navalny said. The imprisoned opposition leader urged Biden to take a much tougher line against Putin. https://www.businessinsider.com/ale...is-falling-into-putins-trap-on-ukraine-2022-1
Vlad has no good options for a full out military invasion or possibly even for just a smaller bite out of the east. Although Biden did announce that a small incursion would be okay. Might involve some sanctions or something. Other than that, Putin has lots of options and knows EXACTLY what he is doing. The Americans and EU? Not so much. Making it up as they go along. The Ukraine and Russia have never had an official ceasefire from their previous flaps. But back about ten years ago, there were the Minsk accords- which I cannot articulate completely- but they called for a ceasefire and for "special status" for the russian dominated eastern regions/states. The agreement fell apart or was never finalized and then there was Minsk 2 which fell apart or something. Can't remember. Anyway I read where some pundit was pointing out that Vlad has always wanted the Americans to put more pressure on Kiev to implement that agreement. ie. ceasefire in the east. and agreement to consider "special status" for the eastern regions." AND I THOUGHT TO MYSELF: Yeh, the Americans would eat that talky, talky shiite right up, especially the Blinken ilk clowns. Then market it as bringing peace to the east, and not agreeing to the special status but endorsing long drawn out discussions about it, which only highlights their special status. So Putin ramps up his meddling there and does it internally. ie. Crimea 2.0. Plan A for Putin is still attractive to him though, which would be to take some of the east and just pay the price on sanctions. Yeh, that is just a business deal for him. Economic pain and hardship and suffering in exchange for more turf? SOLD! These are Russians for crisesake. You gonna cut off Germany's gas from Russia to get at Putin? Okay. Go for it.
We’ll see. Like I said originally this is still about the spread of pro western governments cozying up with NATO into Eastern Europe. Putin tried his best to influence Ukraine but the last votes have not gone his way hence the military build up to intimidate the Ukrainians. Now if he doesn’t do anything it undermines his threat, if he takes a chunk of Russia sympathetic voters in the east and makes them Russians proper it undermines the waning political influence in Ukraine. Then if he moves deep into Ukraine he now has Ukraine and all of Ukraine’s problems. Anyway you look at it he isn’t getting a vassal state or some resemblance of the bloc state he dreams of. Add into that the range of possibilities of sanctions and other actions and it’s a headache. Now will Putin take what he can get whether it’s some Minsk agreement 2 or some weapons drawdowns, idk. Time is running out on the dream of the USSR band back together in terms of the bloc states and keeps slipping away further with every year.
Well, although it gets underdiscussed, Putin worries as much about Georgia joining NATO too. Some of those countries are "pro-western" but probably we don't want them because they are still soviet in their love for corruption and their loyalties are snaky. But Biden should have kept him worrying about that and let Vlad know that his actions increase the chance they will be joining so knock it off. But no, instead he signals that that is not something we are actively ramping up or advocating. I don't want them in, but idiot Biden should be increasing Putin's- worries not helping him with his current ones. As you pointed out, his chances of putting the USSR back together again are getting slim. But his sub-goal is to at least get the russian speaking peoples back together, and he is making some progress toward that and it gets him points with the russian people. The Crimea and eastern ukraine border areas are russian speaking-culture.
Biden isn’t playing that game and this is where you and in disagree on what strength is. Should Biden as a proxy for NATO be presenting representations on Georgia or other bloc states that may or may not be true amd how tangled do we want to get into that web. Or some other variation of “we’ll knock out all of your satellites” kind of posturing some other rubes think is foreign diplomacy. I don’t see that as strength. I don’t see that as strength at all. To me that’s playing Putin’s game - put a range of possibilities on the table and wait for a reaction and then rinse wash and repeat until we end up knee deep in some strange places with some scary bedfellows. No. We should not move from our stance. We recognize the right of sovereign countries to govern themselves and we seek to spread democracy and rule of law for the sake of the world. Aggressors will be penalized and friends will be rewarded. Don’t waiver. End of story.
Most definitely. Putin's biggest fear is that Ukraine and Georgia and others are MORE likely to be admitted to NATO if he/Putin continues down their path, rather then LESS likely. You want to play nice with Putin. You do that. It is a very legitimate fear that he has and I would give him more to worry about. Not to worry though. Biden and Blinken and Austin will work out something that is sensitve to Putin and who he is as a person. Just as they did for the Taliban. They did not want to play hardball with the Taliban, so the Taliban played hardball with us. The thing about having Biden in charge is that you can take it up the arse from anyone, anywhere, any day. I get your virtue signaling though. Vlad sends a big wet kiss.