Russia & Ukraine

Discussion in 'Politics' started by UsualName, Jan 18, 2022.

  1. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

     
    #7461     Sep 14, 2022
  2. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Does anyone know where Putin is? Hey, Pootie Poots time to come out. Your Russian comrades want a few words with you.

    War In Ukraine, Day 203: Where’s Putin? Russian Leader Stays Silent As Ukrainian Offensive Accelerates
    https://worldcrunch.com/in-the-news/ukraine-russia-war-latest-news-where-is-putin

    The last sighting of Vladimir Putin was five days ago, when the Russian President appeared at the inauguration of a giant Ferris wheel in Moscow.


    Since then, as the Ukrainian army’s major counter-offensive in the northeast and south has gained momentum, and Russian troops make a hasty retreat, Putin has disappeared from the public space and made no comments on the dramatic events on the front of what he continues to call a “special military operation.”

    The same is true of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, considered a loyal Putin insider and chief architect of the war, who has made no appearances or declarations.

    Several independent Russian media outlets have reported on these absences, including independent media outlets Popular Politics and Obyektiv, as well as journalists Michael Naki, Ilya Varlamov, and others.

    The Institute for the Study of War believes Putin is trying to downplay the army's setbacks, worried that it can undermine his popularity. Still, there are risks in keeping silent. In the void, anger at Putin from the virulently pro-war Russian camp is spreading.

    Several dozen municipal deputies have signed a petition demanding the President's resignation. “Now we have 47 verified signatures of deputies,” said St. Petersburg parliament member Xenia Thorstromb. “The geography has expanded considerably."

    Meanwhile, there are also rumblings in the Duma national parliament: Gennady Zyuganov, a deputy from the Communist Party, demanded a general mobilization that could replenish troops and finally commit to a full-fledged war.
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2022
    #7462     Sep 14, 2022
  3. I just read something that said Putin was off on retreat.

    Oh, wait. I just read it again. It said he was retreating.

    MY BAD!
     
    #7463     Sep 14, 2022
  4. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    So let's take a moment to look at where things are at in the Ukraine war:
    • The Ukraine offensive in the Kharkiv region proceeded much more quickly than the Ukraine commanders expected. This created a situation where the Ukraine forces were outrunning their logistics and support.
    • At this point the Ukraine troops in the Kharkiv offensive are also worn out after over five days on the offensive; they need to re-group, get some sleep and prepare for the next steps as incoming supplies arrive. Effectively an operational pause should be expected.
    • The Ukrainian military has captured so much Russian equipment and munitions they effectively don't know what to do with it all - and will have difficulty moving it all to their back-lines quickly.
    • Another issue is the large number of Russian prisoners which Ukraine may have difficulty feeding. This may lead to solutions such as simply shipping some of the Russians back to Russia on buses while keeping senior officers and those who may be guilty of war crimes.
    • The seizing of rail heads by the Ukrainians have significantly cut the Russians ability to re-supply their troops
    • A few days ago, Russia was originally proposing an offense towards Kharviv from the Donetsk/Luhansk region. However at this point it appears the Russians are just digging in and preparing a defense.
    • In the Kherson region it appears that the Russian military has abandoned positions in suburb towns of Kherson and moved the troops back into Kherson.
    • Around Kherson it appears the Russian military are short of supplies, many have fled, and a good number appear to potentially attempting to negotiate their surrender.
    • There is still a good amount of territory that Ukraine must take back in the east; this war is far from over. Ukraine has won a major battle but not the war yet.
    • Many Russian civilians hired into jobs in Ukraine are fleeing. This includes teachers, police officers, and other civil administrators. The Russians living in Crimea (since 2014) are also fleeing and trying to sell their real estate at greatly discounted prices.
    • The Ukraine collaborators in the east who supported Russia are also fleeing to Russia. To their surprise, the Russian passports they were handed are not accepted and many are stranded inside Ukraine near the border.
    • If Russia keeps firing shells and missiles at Ukraine cities such as Kharkiv from inside Russia -- then the Ukraine military will likely respond with missile strikes to take out the artillery locations inside Russia -- and potential send select ground force teams over to eliminate Russian artillery strikes.
    • Russia is not moving more troops into Ukraine; the flow of supplies has also been greatly reduced.
    • Russian air power and sea power is totally ineffective at this point in stopping the Ukrainians in this conflict.
    • What's next in this war? Only time will tell. I am expecting some time of Russian offensive to be attempted, as well as a renewal of the Ukraine offensive -- but the primary axis of Ukraine assault into Donetsk/Luhansk region may not come from the axis of their current Kharkiv gains. Ukraine may merely sit on assaulting Kherson -- simply waiting for a significant Russian surrender in the Kherson region then mapping up those Russians who refuse to surrender around Kherson.
    • The big question remains if Putin will simply shift course in this war -- by using large scale missile strikes at Ukraine cities to cause terror. Or will Putin use chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Or blow up a nuclear plant to cause radiation problems.
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2022
    #7464     Sep 14, 2022
    MACD likes this.
  5. I know where Putin is:

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/07/world/xi-putin-meet-next-week/

    Putin and Xi to meet in Uzbekistan on September 15-16. I would imagine there would be discussion of topics of interest to NATO and Ukraine.

    Putin will likely try to leverage recent events regarding Chinese Taipei into an expanded military doctrine and increased trade commitments. Xi will probably express concern that escalation in Ukraine by Russia could lead to economic fallout for China, although given Russia’s current situation, Xi might be tempted to negotiate a deal regarding Russia’s resources at firesafe prices.

    Thought for the meeting regarding diplomacy among nations: “Is it borders that we respect or is it military capability”?

    Edit: This is a repost.
     
    #7465     Sep 14, 2022
  6. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    We may see an escalation of Russian bomber and missile attacks with the intent to terrorize and destroy infrastructure in Ukraine.



     
    #7466     Sep 14, 2022
  7. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Z-Russia-into-a-joke.png
     
    #7467     Sep 14, 2022
    UsualName, Cuddles and virtusa like this.
  8. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #7468     Sep 14, 2022
  9. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading


    His Ferris wheel is just like his tanks...


    As Russia was forced to retreat in Ukraine, Putin was opening a giant Ferris wheel — but it broke down and people had to be refunded
    https://news.yahoo.com/russia-forced-retreat-ukraine-putin-132144158.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
     
    #7469     Sep 14, 2022
  10. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #7470     Sep 14, 2022