Yup, Joe just did the equivalent of telling Putin that if he raped his wife it might be okay if he just put it halfway in. Not good. Idiot.
Biden sees Russia moving on Ukraine, sows doubt on Western response WASHINGTON/KYIV, Jan 19 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden predicted on Wednesday that Russia will make a move on Ukraine, saying Russia would pay dearly for a full-scale invasion but suggesting there could be a lower cost for a "minor incursion." Biden's comments at a White House news conference injected uncertainty into how the West would respond should Russian President Vladimir Putin order an invasion of Ukraine, prompting the White House later to seek to clarify what Biden meant.
It's an interesting move, give permission so that the domestic political gain Putin will get is muted by him only doing what he was told he could. He was going to take the other region anyway, now he gains a lot less kudos. So its go big, take Kiev from the north and join Crimea to Donbass along the coast or cement some small enclaves and look a bit shit.
If Putin would have the intention to invade Ukraine, he would have done it already by surprise. Just like he did with Crimea. So he will not invade Ukraine. Uk send already troops to Ukraine and the whole Western world is supporting Ukraine. So the entire Western world would be against Putin. He cannot afford that. Putin risks to lose a lot. Not only economical (gas represents 45% of the total income of Russia), but also personal. Putin and his friends are continuously stealing billons out of Russia. That would be impossible once he would start a war against Ukraine. So he would lose personally billions. Putin is estimated to have only 30% of the Russian supporting him, so he risks an attack on his position that would be weakened,if he should be busy with that war. There was already a lot of protest from people who lost family members that died in East of Ukraine. These dead Russian soldiers officially were never in Ukraine.
Anyone who wants to understand Vladimir Putin today needs to know the story of what happened to him on a dramatic night in East Germany a quarter of a century ago. It is 5 December 1989 in Dresden, a few weeks after the Berlin Wall has fallen. East German communism is dying on its feet, people power seems irresistible. Crowds storm the Dresden headquarters of the Stasi, the East German secret police, who suddenly seem helpless. Then a small group of demonstrators decides to head across the road, to a large house that is the local headquarters of the Soviet secret service, the KGB. "The guard on the gate immediately rushed back into the house," recalls one of the group, Siegfried Dannath. But shortly afterwards "an officer emerged - quite small, agitated". "He said to our group, 'Don't try to force your way into this property. My comrades are armed, and they're authorised to use their weapons in an emergency.'" That persuaded the group to withdraw. But the KGB officer knew how dangerous the situation remained. He described later how he rang the headquarters of a Red Army tank unit to ask for protection. The answer he received was a devastating, life-changing shock. "We cannot do anything without orders from Moscow," the voice at the other end replied. "And Moscow is silent." That phrase, "Moscow is silent" has haunted this man ever since. Defiant yet helpless as the 1989 revolution swept over him, he has now himself become "Moscow" - the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin.
I don’t think that is what Biden was doing. I think Biden was being too honest. He knows a small movement will most likely solicit a muted response from the Europeans whereas a big invasion will compel Europeans to take more punitive measures. An all out invasion, which is possible, will stoke the European citizenry to demand strong countermeasures. The Europeans are generally anti conflict but they certainly don’t want Russia building up the old Soviet bloc state system. The Russians have gotten themselves into quite the pickle now. They certainly want to sure up the Black Sea but they also want to balance not stoking European resolve.
This is what I was referring to: President Joe Biden on Wednesday predicted Russia "will move in" to Ukraine, citing existential concerns by the country's president, Vladimir Putin, even as he warned of significant economic consequences should such an incursion occur. But he suggested a "minor incursion" would elicit a lesser response than a full-scale invasion of the country. "I'm not so sure he is certain what he is going to do. My guess is he will move in. He has to do something," Biden said, describing a leader searching for relevance in a post-Soviet world. "He is trying to find his place in the world between China and the west." Biden's prediction of an invasion is the firmest acknowledgment to date the United States fully expects Putin to move after amassing 100,000 troops along the Ukraine border
Probably hoping too much for some guile I was discussing Putin ten years ago with a Russian businessman when I was in Egypt and he predicted the move to take over Ukrainine as Putin's control unwound and he used nationalism to prop himself. I'd never known that Russians saw Ukraine as their original homeland. Probably would have been good if Ukraine had kept a few of its nukes though.
This information effectively serves to outline why the Ukraine ground force military won't really stand-up to the overwhelming might of Russia despite Ukraine having a well-organized military.