This is more about weather conditions and the geopolitical climate. In the Eastern European world this timeframe we are in is the war window. Lots of stuff tends to happen right about now when Russia is involved. Putin will use whatever he can to make his case. If the Russians are going it’s going to be sooner than later now. They do have a problem in that it is relatively rainy and warm in Ukraine for a while and that means they will have to move using paved roads. Big problem for them because roads tend to be out in the open and are easily destroyed. We will see.
You worry about the dumbest shit. Pay attention to the response of NATO if you want to judge Biden. Keep an eye on the Germans too. This is not the time for games. If not contained this conflict could cascade far and wide.
Olympics are still a factor. But will not be after the weekend. So that goes off the table. As I have said before, I don't necessarily see this as Vlad shiiting or getting off the pot scenario. He is prick and knows he is damaging Ukraine's economy just by being a prick. I could see him pulling his troops back but leaving them hovering just outside Ukraine and ready to go for months. Not saying he will do that. Just saying, it is an option. That is why I have said before that he needs to be sanctioned just for threatening actions at some point. I don't buy into the idea that he should be allowed to just do this shiite and then have a few giggles and go home. As a practical matter if he did that today, I don't have a boner for making it an issue and would let it go. But if he wants to make this a regional lifestyle for the Ukrainians and the NATO countries, I would sanction him just for being a prick regardless of whether he attacked.