No incumbent or incumbent party has ever kept The White House when the incumbent had a negative net approval rating in Gallup polling.Trump is already -6 on Gallup,he'll be around -20 to -30 in 2028.
Trump is not even light years ahead, now post Clinton chances on November 1 2016 Vance will win with Reagan 1984 numbers
Trump is not light years ahead,Trump is light years behind. There wasn't an incumbent with net negative approval ratings in 2016.There was in 1968,1976,1980,1992,2008,2020 and 2024 though (feel free to look up if the incumbent party kept The White House those elections).There will be an incumbent with net negative approval ratings in 2028.
Trump didn't win with Reagan 1984 numbers.Trump didn't even win the majority of the vote or even get as many votes as Biden did in 2020. With Trump having double digit negative approval ratings Vance will get crushed.
When no incumbent or incumbent party has ever kept The White House when the incumbent had a negative approval rating and we know Trump will have negative approval ratings in 2028 no it is not.
Here is another prediction,Democrats take The House in 2026,just as they did taking 40 House seats in 2018 when Trump had net negative approval ratings.