Y'all see the Dnieper river here? That is about what Vlad wants out of this little excursion. From the east to the Dnieper River. Kiev is a tougher nut to crack and you are getting into solidly Ukranian territory there rather than Ruskie mixed. So he might be satisfied with a boundary that takes him to the river but then straight north to the Russian border from Dnipropetrovsk. That would get him all the pro-Russian areas, and also get him a land-bridge down to Crimea which he already owns. Not saying he can do that, but that would be the very decent little consolation prize he wants if he can get it. It is also quite a step up from just nibbling those ultra-Ruskie regions right on the eastern border. If he cannot get that, he will at least be a prick and keep a massive number of troops just over the border in the east to ramp up his already considerable trouble making and aggression in that region- and he will also recognize some of the breakaway provinces and just generally be an aggressive pain in the arse while working another incremental plan. As I discussed earlier, he has started to ramp up discussions about reviving the Minsk agreement discussions that fell apart a couple times before- agreements that would formalize an end to the current border war that has gone on for years with Russia, and also address conditions, governing etc in those border areas. I think he is working Macron on that. Putin might play with that as a face-saver if he can get some concessions but he is not satisifed with anything less than owning and occupying the turf in those areas- and over time he will get it- could be sooner- could be later but he has his eyes on the prize as long as he is living. You can probably tone him down a bit with pipeline sanctions if he does not invade and is still a troublemaker but he knows that Europe is dependent on that pipeline and after a few months they will be willing to overlook a lot. The Americans too- or should I say, especially.
If he really, really wanted to twist the knife he would go all the way to Moldova and deny Ukraine access to the Black Sea, this is particularly NATO’s largest concern.
Kiev is the birthplace of Russia. A lot of history and emotion involved here among the Russian people.
Yep, except he would get the same pushback for doing that as he would for trying to take the whole of Ukraine, so he might as well go balls to the wall for the whole country if he goes that route. That is in his long range plan though. Once he gets Belarus up to speed to help out more. Although I don't know. Germany may send the Ukraine some more helmets and that will stop Vlad cold.
Russians are hyenas, feliformia. They need harsh physical lessons to keep them in check. I learned my lesson a long time ago in Africa when a verbal warning resulted in a grenade in through my bedroom window. So people say they want "respect" fine, make them respect you. Following that incident I broke bones as a hello to any Russians in the area looking at dealing with poachers and it worked fine. There is no appeasement, supply Ukraine with battlefield nukes immediately (to use on the staged troops) and tell the Russians its their move. Ukraine gave up its nukes to Russia on an agreement they would be protected from Russian aggression, that's not happening so give them back some nukes. Proxy wars by the nuclear powers are shameful bullshit. They all have glass jaws, if Russians want to nuke Kiev, their 'birthplace' fine, they won't though.
The last few years of war and tit for tat atrocities have caused irreversible damage now between the divided citizens of Ukraine . This is going to be messy. Not good at all.