Russia & Ukraine

Discussion in 'Politics' started by UsualName, Jan 18, 2022.

  1. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Treump-Zelenskyy-RobinHood.jpg
     
    #18901     Feb 24, 2025
  2. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #18902     Feb 24, 2025
    Snuskpelle and Nobert like this.
  3. Snuskpelle

    Snuskpelle

    Related entry by British economist Timothy Ash: https://timothyash.substack.com/p/clueless

    ---

    Listening to Trump, Musk, and their “peace” negotiators” Waltz, Rubio and Witkoff talk over the weekend it became apparent to me that they simply have no clue when it comes to Putin and Ukraine. And yes, as Zelensky rightly said, they seem to be operating in Russian disinformation space - taking the Russian talking points hook, line and stinker.





    And as someone who has covered Ukraine since 1988, and called the invasion as far back as 2015, I think I have some authority to make observations herein.

    I would draw attention to two articles herein - one where I spelt out the war was coming, and the second a pushback on the Trump/Musk views which appear to come from Mearsheimer.

    https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/timothy-ash-putins-next-move.htm

    https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/mearsheimer-should-be-ashamed-of?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false

    My main observation herein is that it would be suicide for Ukraine if Zelensky accepted Trump’s (or actually Putin’s) peace terms. Ukraine would fail to exist as a sovereign state and Ukrainians would risk the genocide and ethnic cleansing which was seen in Bucha and Mariupol. Trump and Musk have very selective historical memory herein.

    Putin wants the whole of Ukraine - it’s emotional for him, and it’s not about NATO.

    As is, Zelensky cannot accept the ceasefire terms as is - it would be political suicide for him, and would be the end of Ukrainian sovereignty. Most Ukrainians get that and that Putin will never leave them alone unless they are given some security assurances. Therein the best I would imagine are to have their defence in their own hands - being given the full list of weapons needed to defend themselves, or the State of Israel guarantee. Unfortunately Trump’s negotiating tactics with Putin have been so naive, so amateurish, that rather than having as the starting point a discussion about Ukraine’s NATO membership it has just all shifted East to where Russia would have had its fall back positions - Ukrainian demilitarisation. The Russians now will be looking to limit Ukrainian defences so they can invade again and take the whole country. The other angle which Trump and his muppets totally fell for was to get a ceasefire first, before holding presidential elections then a final peace deal. Russia knows that holding presidential elections will require a lifting of martial law and mobilisation, risking a mass overseas exit of Ukrainian males and the front line with it. Again, that’s the path to total Russian victory.

    Question here where Ukraine gets in Trump’s deal? The answer is absolutely nothing apart from allowing it to have its face ripped of via the minerals deal.

    Let’s see if Ukraine can play for time here and see if the Europeans can come up with a counter offer to Trump on Ukraine. For me it has to be the mother of all defence procurement deals - confiscate the $330 bn of CBR assets, double it with European defence orders and offer Trump up to a €1 trillion defence deal for Ukraine and European security over the next decade. That’s a huge number of US jobs delivered to Trump. Putin can never match that as it’s the equivalent of 50% of Russian GDP. And play to Trump’s ego, call it the Trump Defence of European Democracy Programme. Are Europeans clever enough to think of this - unlikely if their head in the sand approach to immobilised CBR assets are anything to go by over the past three years.
     
    #18903     Feb 24, 2025
    SunTrader and Nobert like this.
  4. Nobert

    Nobert

    Reporter asks simple question, the guy :
    ,, Well, in the beginning of the universe... So the dinosaurs... Aaaaand ''

    Summarize :
    ,, Russia invaded other countries previously, but not him (not the Trump), but the Trump will end it ''


    What the, lol.
     
    #18904     Feb 24, 2025
  5. Nobert

    Nobert

    Last edited: Feb 24, 2025
    #18905     Feb 24, 2025
  6. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    And we (USA) .... stand with Russia and North Korea against resolution putting blame where it belongs - on Russia. Niiiice.
     
    #18906     Feb 24, 2025
  7. smallfil

    smallfil

    President Donald Trump said they are close to a deal. However, NATO warmongers and Ukraine want to keep fighting. Russia will accommodate them. Zelensky and his NATO masters do not have any leverage over Russia and it gets worse for Ukraine as Russia takes more and more territory.
     
    #18907     Feb 24, 2025
    Tsing Tao likes this.
  8. themickey

    themickey

    Trump and Musk will do what they can to save Russia from poverty.
     
    #18908     Feb 24, 2025
  9. kashirin

    kashirin

    After Biden blew nord stream in worst terrorist attack ever on civilian infrastructure
     
    #18909     Feb 24, 2025
  10. kashirin

    kashirin

    #18910     Feb 24, 2025