It will be interesting to see how this works out. The incoming Trump administration is preparing harsher oil sanctions on Russia in an attempt to squeeze them to arrive at a peace plan for Ukraine. At the same time the Trump administration plans to choke Iran and Venezuela. Trump Team Readies Oil Sanctions Plan for Russia Deal, Iran Squeeze https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-team-readies-oil-sanctions-124240838.html (Bloomberg) — Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said. The outgoing Biden administration on Friday imposed the most disruptive sanctions on Russia’s oil trade by any Western power to date. The move created an open question about how Trump views the measures, given his commitment to quickly ending the war in Ukraine. There are two main approaches under consideration by the Trump team. One set of policy recommendations — if the incoming administration believes a resolution to the Ukraine war is in sight — involves some good-faith measures to benefit sanctioned Russian oil producers that could help seal a peace deal, said the people, requesting anonymity as the deliberations are private. A second option would build on the sanctions, ramping up pressure even further to increase leverage, they said. The approach that Trump ultimately chooses is pivotal to the global oil market. Brent futures have gained almost $5 a barrel since Biden’s measures were announced. Some analysts anticipate further gains, something that would drive up fuel costs around the world. The Trump team’s plans are in the early stages and ultimately depend on the president-elect himself, the people said. Last week, Trump said a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin was being set up, raising the prospect of potential near-term negotiations to end the war. The strategy discussions include some of Trump’s cabinet nominees as well as former sanctions officials in his first administration, the people said. Several conservative-leaning think tanks are also being sounded out. The transition team has yet to announce Trump’s picks for some key roles involved in economic statecraft. Among the lingering questions are whether Brad Smith and Andrea Gacki, two US Treasury Department veterans, will stay on in senior roles. Trump’s advisers will ultimately be wrestling with the same question as the Biden administration — how to avoid major supply and price disruptions to the oil market at a time when Washington has extensive sanctions on three of the world’s top producers. Another challenge: Calibrating the right balance between leveraging the tools of economic warfare with the desire to maintain the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency. Spokespeople for Trump’s transition team didn’t respond to an emailed request for comment. Secondary Sanctions An early barometer of how the Trump team tackles sanctions on Russia will come in mid-March when a general license permitting a wind-down in purchases of Russian energy products is set to expire. If the Treasury Department allows the exemption on some transactions to lapse, it could ratchet up pressure on the Kremlin. On Wednesday, officials introduced measures to make it harder for Trump to lift some of the sanctions on Russia unilaterally. They re-designated several entities, requiring the president to notify Congress if he plans to lift restrictions on them, potentially triggering a vote of disapproval if members object. For the Trump team, a more-aggressive Russian policy mix could entail greater enforcement of secondary sanctions on oil trading, penalizing European shippers as well as Asian buyers, including major entities in China and India, the people said. Another possible approach: Pushing for more assertive interventions on tankers moving Russia’s oil through the vital Danish and Turkish chokepoints. A softer-touch scenario might mean issuing general licenses and lifting the price cap to higher than $60 per barrel — moves that would encourage Russian oil to keep flowing to the market. In his confirmation hearing on Wednesday for secretary of state, Marco Rubio cited the sanctions as a key piece of leverage that could bring about a peaceful resolution. Elsewhere, the Trump team is also assessing policy options for Iran and Venezuela. There’s a general consensus among his key advisers to return to a full maximum pressure strategy targeting Tehran, starting with a big sanctions package that hits major players in the oil industry, which could come as early as February, the people said. During Trump’s first term, a similar approach significantly curtailed Iranian oil exports, though they’ve climbed since President Joe Biden took office. The situation is more complex in Venezuela, where long-time ruler Nicolas Maduro just got sworn in for another term amid widespread evidence of election fraud but US oil firms like Chevron Corp. also have a presence. Maduro survived the Trump administration’s maximum pressure strategy, even as it curbed the nation’s oil exports, and also outlasted an effort by Biden officials to facilitate free and fair elections. Mauricio Claver-Carone, an influential adviser during Trump’s first term, will be returning to a prominent role on Latin America, and there’s a desire to restore the more aggressive posture he helped steer around 2019, when the US stopped recognizing Maduro as the legitimate president of Venezuela, the people said.
Just Russia outlining which nation is targeted next for military aggression. Russian presidential adviser warns Moldova may “cease to exist” https://www.intellinews.com/russian-presidential-adviser-warns-moldova-may-cease-to-exist-361566/
Ukrainian tanks including, Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks are no match for Russian drones. They are being destroyed in huge numbers. Even those F-16s, vaunted as a game changer are being shot down by Russian air defenses. What has been effective for Ukraine are the drones and ATACMs missiles from the US. Russia has responded with their own missile barrage at Ukraine. President Donald Trump will cut off funding to Ukraine because Zelensky will keep fighting, no matter the huge casualties, as long as US aid in the billions and military equipment keep coming. Once cut, Zelensky would have no choice but, go to the negotiating table.
Sounds like Trump plans to go hard-core with sanctions against Russia to force them out of Ukraine. However this may just be a starting position threat to move the process forward -- Trump loves using threats as a tool. Trump is reportedly going to sanction Russia until it gives up Ukraine A recent report has highlighted President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to stop the war in Ukraine by levying wide-ranging sanctions against Russia. https://www.audacy.com/wwjnewsradio...ly-to-sanction-russia-until-it-leaves-ukraine
Two words: Keith Kellogg - as discussed. When Trump chose Kellogg to lead the negotiations he - much to my surprise- chose someone who believes that you have to settle the war but cannot do it in a way that signals weakness to China and the rest of the world, and also is so weak that it will not deter Russia from trying again after it rests up. This is contrary to Trump's earlier posture which was: "I have a homoerotic relationship with Putin and will settle this war immediately just finding out what Vlad wants to do and then do that." You can see the difference.
On the same topic, stealth mobilization about to happen? https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lfusxctkns2g
I see Russia as continuing to underachieve her potential. Especially relative to the West and East. Perhaps its related to leadership not seeing the forest for the trees. It may be the old ways are losing effectiveness in modern society at large.
Construction of new transport vehicles for the front: https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lfzda3c3ks2t