Ukraine-Russia war latest: Russia ‘drafts 180,000 convicts’ as Zelensky says decisive Trump can stop Putin Russia has enlisted between 140,000 and 180,000 prison inmates to fight in the war against Ukraine, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) said, according to the Kyiv Independent. A Russian government decree abolishing the one-time payment of £2,842 to prisoners for signing a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry to participate in the war against Ukraine came into effect on 1 January. “The legislative abolition of the one-time payment is evidence of the deepening crisis in the Russian economy and the shortage of financial resources,” Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service claimed. The Independent could not verify these claims. It comes as Volodymyr Zelensky auded incoming US president Donald Trump saying he could be decisive in the outcome of the 34-month-old war with Russia and help stop Vladimir Putin. “He can be decisive in this war,” the Ukrainian president said. “He is capable of stopping Putin or, to put it more fairly, help us stop Putin. He is able to do this.” https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-putin-zelensky-missiles-drones-b2673120.html
Russia lost more troops in 2024 than in 2022 & 2023 combined. In 2024, Russia managed to seize a mere 0.69% of Ukraine while losing 1,180 troops per day. ‘Highest price for war’: Russia lost 430,000 soldiers in 2024, says Ukraine Casualties understood to have reached record levels last year as Russia seized less than 1 percent of Ukrainian lands. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025...sia-lost-430000-soldiers-in-2024-says-ukraine Russia’s gradual, grinding advance in parts of Ukraine’s eastern region of Donetsk succeeded in wresting away 4,168 sq km (1,609 square miles) of fields and abandoned villages in 2024 – equivalent to 0.69 percent of the country. That was the assessment of the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank, based on satellite imagery and geolocated video footage. “Russian forces have seized four mid-sized settlements – Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove – in all of 2024, the largest of which had a pre-war population of just over 31,000 people,” said the ISW. Russian forces spent four months taking Avdiivka, and two months each for Selydove and Kurakhove. “Seizing these settlements has not allowed Russian forces to threaten any notable Ukrainian defensive nodes,” said the ISW, adding that Moscow’s troops failed to conduct the kind of rapid, mechanised manoeuvre necessary to convert these “tactical gains into deep penetrations of Ukraine’s rear”. At this rate, Russia would need two more years to complete its conquest of Donetsk alone, the ISW assessed – something Russian President Vladimir Putin had ordered his commanders to do by October 1. Russia’s sacrifices to achieve these advances have been immense, as Ukrainian forces used their defender’s advantage to inflict high casualties, especially in urban settings where they fought building-to-building, street-to-street. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskii said on Monday that Russian forces had suffered an estimated 427,000 wounded and killed in 2024. A few days later, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence put Russia’s losses last year at 430,790 soldiers – the equivalent of 36 Russian motorised rifle divisions – outnumbering its losses in 2022 and 2023 combined. These losses amounted to an average of 1,180 a day, but casualty figures rose substantially towards the end of the year, as Russian forces increased their assaults in an apparent effort to influence the US election. The highest monthly losses, the Defence Ministry said, came in November and December – 45,720 and 48,670 respectively – as Russia intensified its attacks in Donetsk. “This year, the Russians paid the highest price for the war against Ukraine, as our army and all of our defence and security forces of Ukraine destroyed more enemy equipment and manpower than in any of the previous years of the war,” Syrksyi told his forces in an address on December 31. ‘1,700 killed and wounded every day’ Russia did manage to increase its daily land grab from 14 sq km (5.4 square miles) in October to 28 sq km in November but fell back to 18 sq km (11 square miles) a day in December. Apparently, its losses did not fall commensurately. “Over the past week, the invaders have been losing about 1,700 people killed and wounded every day,” Syrksyi said on Monday. December also produced two possible Russian casualty records. On December 29, Ukraine’s general staff said Russian forces lost 2,010 people. They suffered a possible all-time record of 2,200 daily casualties in a total of 191 combat clashes on December 19. Ukraine also estimated it had taken out 3,689 Russian tanks, thousands of armoured combat vehicles, and more than 13,000 artillery pieces. Ukraine’s navy said it sank five ships and 458 smaller craft. Russia recruited North Korean fighters in an effort to relieve pressure on its manpower, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said a quarter of them had been wiped out. “According to preliminary data, the number of killed and wounded North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region already exceeds 3,000 people,” Zelenskyy said in his evening address on December 23. A drone view shows residential and administrative buildings damaged and destroyed by continued Russian military attacks in the town of Toretsk, Donetsk region, Ukraine [File: Сonsolidated Brigade ‘Khyzhak’ of the Ukrainian Patrol Police Department/Handout via Reuters] He more recently claimed Russia was killing North Koreans in danger of falling into the hands of Ukrainian forces. “Everything is arranged in a way that makes it impossible for us to capture the Koreans as prisoners – their own people are executing them, there are such cases,” Zelenskyy said in an evening address on December 27. Ukraine’s military intelligence, GUR, said more North Koreans were being brought to Kursk to replace losses. Russia eyes Central Asia to heal economy Putin appears to have prioritised manpower for the war over workers for the economy. He signed a decree on Monday forcing all undocumented migrants to depart Russia by the end of April, but joining the military allows them to circumvent normal legal status requirements. Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service estimated Russia suffered from a labour shortage of 1.5 million people last year, as the available labour force declined by a million. Yet Putin’s decree would suck foreign workers out of the economy and put them on the front lines. Putin acknowledged shortages of “hundreds of thousands” in an end-of-year news conference on December 19, but did not connect those shortages to the war. Instead, he proposed bringing more migrant workers from Central Asian countries. He dwelled on the need “to develop a network of Russian schools there, to study the Russian language, to introduce people who are going to come to work here” and spoke of the need to increase labour productivity through higher technologies. Ukraine and Russia have both transitioned to war economies, Russia’s financed by income from fossil fuels and Ukraine’s by aid from its Western allies. Both have sought to become as weapons-autonomous as possible. In his New Year’s address, Zelenskyy said 30 percent of the weapons Ukraine used last year were domestically made. “I felt ashamed as a citizen that since the 90s, the state hadn’t noticed such people of ours,” he said. “And I am proud… that Ukraine is once again building its own, its own missiles. And for the first time, it produces over a million drones in a year.” Ukraine has used aerial and naval drones of its own design to strike deep inside Russia and across the Black Sea. Ukraine’s military intelligence said on Tuesday it used a SeaDragon missile launched from a Magura V naval drone to down a Russian Mi8 helicopter. “Today, for the first time, a helicopter was shot down, it fell into the water. That is, the fact of the destruction of an air target over the Black Sea has been recorded,” Kirill Budanov, Ukraine’s intelligence chief, told a telethon. GUR released footage of the strike. Previously, Russian helicopters struck in this war had managed to reach an airfield, he said. Russia has also invested in drones, though it is hampered by Western sanctions on imports of sensitive technology. Its drone plant in Alabuga, 1,000km (620 miles) east of Moscow, produced 5,760 drones in the first nine months of last year, Ukrainian intelligence sources told CNN, double its 2023 output. Ukraine’s air force said in 2024, it faced a much greater missile and drone threat against critical infrastructure than in 2023, partly because Russia was also using decoy Shahed drones that do not carry explosives but confuse and overwhelm air defences. “The enemy is trying to complicate the air situation as much as possible, overload our air defences and exhaust our sky defenders,” the air force said. Throughout last year, Ukraine said it shot down 11,200 “attack” drones, of which 7,800 were Shaheds. Kyiv alone faced 200 aerial assaults last year, the municipality said, involving 1,300 drones, more than 200 cruise missiles and 46 ballistic missiles. Ukraine’s prosecutor general reported a civilian death overnight on New Year’s Eve, after a Russian drone crashed into a residential building in Kyiv. Another drone caused a fire at the National Bank of Ukraine. The drones were part of a huge attack involving 111 Shahed kamikaze drones, Ukraine’s air force said, 63 of which it said it shot down. Despite its rising weapons output, Ukraine remained highly dependent on supplies from its allies. United States President Joe Biden on Monday announced $2.5bn in military aid to Ukraine, half of it in immediately drawdown capability. Biden said the package represented the remainder of the $60bn in aid he signed into law for 2024, and included “hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, thousands of rockets, and hundreds of armored vehicles” as well as air defence equipment.
Since I have addressed this issue before I will keep it short but it comes up again now that Trump has officially appointed him. The issue being that Keith Kellogg is 100% in favor of going on the offensive in Ukraine and believes that the Russians are weakened and that it would put the U.S. on the wrong foot with China to show weakness against the Russians. As I have said before, I not complaining just surprised that JD and Don Trump would let Trump put Kellogg in the lead position to negotiate. Somewhat delightfully surprised, I should say. And as I said last week, the Ruskies need to be worried. Even if they hold their territory, Putin still wants a complete demilitarization of Ukraine so that he can rebuild his military and go again when Trump leaves office. Kellogg sees that sh%t coming a mile away. Trumps other military advisor Jack Keene has the same view. So Trump is getting a dose of other views. Which is good. Trump taps Keith Kellogg to negotiate Ukraine-Russia peace https://www.dw.com/en/trump-taps-keith-kellogg-to-negotiate-ukraine-russia-peace/video-70915326
What are your thoughts about categorizing Russian leadership political leadership as Conservative and Ukrainian leadership as Liberal? If such association is reasonable, would it "go against the grain" for the Trump Administration to be too helpful with Ukraine? Especially given Ukraine's prior adverse history with Trump? On the other hand, Trump's selection of Vance as VP, combined with Kellogg's and Keen's input, does suggest a certain, perhaps large, amount of potential friendliness towards Ukraine. Also, If Trump chooses a decidedly pro-Ukrainian policy, how much help would be appropriate, using the Biden Administration's help as a comparative index.
Well, yes, there is all that and those have been the prevailing factors in Trump and others in their development of a view toward Ukraine. And there is room for all of that. I am just saying, and others are influencing Trump to not be controlled simply by the Zelensky factor and pre-existing love for Putin because he allegedly represents the example of strong leadership that Trump would like to emulate. I do share his view that these shit-bums like putin and xi at least look out for their own countries but they are no one I would want to emulate. Russia has a long history of being conservative (although it gets messy because the commies were both conservative and lefties) but American conservative also have a long history of standing against that. I realize that in regard to Ukraine the cool kids among the conservatives now all think it would be groovy to watch Russia crush Ukraine to teach Zelinsky not to fuck with Trump and to show others that they are against all military action simply because we got bogged down in all sorts of military ventures that were not a direct threat to the U.S or Europe. I am not naive. I have alienated several of my conservative friends here and elsewhere with my view on standing against Russian expansion and, while I am not controlled by their discontent I admit that I do not enjoy alienating these good people. Nevertheless, if I want a friend, I will get a dog. I would work out a settlement on Russia-Ukraine but I distinctly do not like Trump's previous position which basically has been: "I will just find out what Vlad wants and give to him." I am unimpressed by that kind of way of settling a war on day one. To the extent that he has some around him now to show him the larger geopolitical picture, I am not displeased with that, regardless of where we end out. General Kellogg and General Keene are telling Trump that he does not want to go down in history or in the eyes of the Chinese as being played by Putin. He needs to drive a harder bargain than that. And that is something that Trump is wrestling with because, while he definitely wants Putin's love, he definitely does not want to be played as a chump. It's a good process. He needs to think long and hard about that. As I said the other day, Trump leaned toward Putin because all the Europeans shit on him and hated him. But he surrounded by many europeans, particularly poland, that are now strong and are big Trump supporters and want Russia contained and Trump listens to them because they are not assholes like the previous batch.
Ukraine lost this war. No amount of friendliness will help. Given price Russia already paid Ukraine chance for survival are slim without going complete Russia vassal
Thank you for your analysis. Yes, I agree Trump can win a lot of friends in Europe by being supportive of Ukraine. The question is, how to find a path that is not merely a delay of escalation?
Let's give a bit of thought to this. Militarily, Ukraine is losing and Russia is winning. Geopolitically, Ukraine is winning influence and Russia is losing influence. Economically, Ukraine is losing and Russia is losing. Regional security, Ukraine is losing and Russia is losing. NATO members are apparently planning to roughly double military expenditures from before the war to now, maybe more, depending on how things are resolved between Ukraine and Russia. Would it not be fair to say both sides will continue to lose more the longer the war continues? Would it not be fair to say that Russia's economic capacity will remain limited should sanctions stay in place, resulting in underperformance relative to Western European countries? Would it not be fair to say that continued economic hardships and maintenance of wartime policy against dissidents could cause Russia to experience civil unrest in various forms and lag in technological development compared to the west? Would it not be fair to say that even if Russia should completely conquer Ukraine, that partisan activity in the form of terrorist attacks will likely plague Russia for decades, especially if supported by private sources in the West? Reminder, there are a whole lot of Ukrainians that have emigrated to the West. Russia's war on Ukraine may result in a military victory, but ultimately counterproductive to most imperatives associated with a major power. Would you describe such a situation as a victory for Russia? It seems the best result would an honest effort to reach a "permanent solution" that is agreeable to all participants. In the age of AI, resources will become available that will increase effectiveness of what we use it for. Whether it is focused upon war or things related to prosperity. If effectively the choice is ultimately prosperity or suffering, is it not worth being flexible, even if it is not seemingly everything one wants, especially if such agreement results greater long term benefits?