The future is bleak in Putin's Russia. Russia’s war economy is on its last legs, but peace may be even worse for Vladimir Putin, experts say https://fortune.com/2024/11/24/russian-war-economy-ukraine-peace-deal-vladimir-putin-donald-trump/ The Russian economy looks unable to sustain President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine past next year, but an end to the fighting could also pose an existential threat to his regime, according to experts. In an analysis in Foreign Policy magazine earlier this month, Marc R. DeVore, a senior lecturer at the University of St. Andrews’s School of International Relations, and Alexander Mertens, a professor of finance at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, explained how Russia can’t produce enough to replace what it’s losing on the battlefield. For example, the military is losing about 320 tank and artillery cannon barrels a month, while Russian factories can only produce 20 each month, forcing the Kremlin to dig into aging Soviet stockpiles. But that’s not enough, and Russia will run out of barrels sometime in 2025, DeVore and Mertens estimated. In addition, Russia is losing about 155 infantry fighting vehicles a month, but its defense industry can only make 17 a month. The supply-and-demand economics of artillery shells and troops are also unsustainable. “Russia cannot continue waging the current war beyond late 2025, when it will begin running out of key weapons systems,” they wrote. But the Kremlin’s mobilization of the economy to support the war has also left it vulnerable to an eventual end to hostilities. DeVore and Mertens noted that paring back massive defense spending will trigger an economic downturn and leave many without work. “The experience of other societies—in particular, European states after World War I—suggests that hordes of demobilized soldiers and jobless defense workers are a recipe for political instability,” they warned. The war has also distorted the composition of Russia’s economy, favoring defense firms at the expense of small- and medium-sized firms that serve the civilian sector, which won’t be able to absorb soldiers and workers displaced by the war’s end. A peace deal would leave Putin with three unpalatable options, according to DeVore and Mertens. The first would be to shrink the military and defense industry, sparking a recession that threatens the regime. The second is to maintain a massive military that eventually chokes off economic growth. “Having experienced the Soviet Union’s decline and fall for similar economic reasons, Russian leaders will probably seek to avoid this fate,” they added. The third option is to maintain the military and use it to seize the resources it needs—”in other words, using conquest and the threat thereof to pay for the military.” They pointed to offshore gas reserves in the Black Sea, other natural resources in Ukraine, or the withdrawal of Western sanctions as possibilities. “Russia’s supersized military sector incentivizes the Kremlin to use its military to extract rents from neighboring states,” DeVore and Mertens said. “The alternatives—demobilizing and incurring a recession or indefinitely funding a bloated military and defense industry—pose existential threats to Putin’s regime.” Peace, in some form, could come sooner rather than later as President-elect Donald Trump has signaled he is eager to find a way to stop the fighting. For now, President Joe Biden is rushing to help Kyiv before Trump takes over. The White House recently allowed Ukraine to fire U.S.-made long-range missiles into Russian territory, after North Korea sent troops to help Putin.
Putin’s war machine is pushing harder and crushing Ukrainian morale https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/11/24/ukraines-warriors-brace-for-a-kremlin-surge-in-the-south
Those reports the Russian Generals give to Putin about all the gains they are making -- Yep, they are all fake. Russian general who faked victories ‘sacked by Putin’ Pro-Kremlin channel claims Colonel General Gennady Anashkin threw poorly prepared and ill-equipped units into battle https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...-anashkin-sacked-putin-ukraine-faked-reports/
Getting my private certification renewed recently I have watched scores of crash "debriefs" and there are endless possibilities, even down to nothing wrong with an aircraft, but the pilots getting into a confused state. Fingers crossed it's just an accident and not Russian backed sabotage. It won't take much to drive outright hostility. A little while ago my building's board in Panama (country, not Florida), mostly locals, forced a sale of two Russian owned apartments, owners abroad all the time, ostensibly for not reliably paying building management fees. One was a clear case, the other more two birds with one stone with legal fees. It surprised me how much local Panamanians, wealthier people, were very pleased and relieved to get the Russians out. There was a real energy at the special meeting.
Moscow hired hundreds of Houthi mercenaries as bullet-sponges, but is totally not desperate for manpower. Moscow Recruits Yemeni Mercenaries for War in Ukraine, Report Says The number of mercenaries is in the hundreds, though many of them claimed they were duped into fighting after being lured by high salaries. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/42769
I think I've viewed ever one of the aircraft youtube videos. Had a golf buddy that was pilot. he said it's hardly ever just one thing, more like a series of errors. The 2 biggest causes, at least for small aircraft are "stall on approach" and "flying into IMC". I would pick the latter i I had a choice.
Indeed though this one is DHL cargo. I've seen a fair number of small planes try the impossible turn as well and various air pressure altitude mistakes with inexperienced pilots. I saw one recently where instead of removing a door for photography the new pilot just strapped it open so a huge spoiler on the side combined with a high airport. He just overran the runway and crashed. It beggers belief that after so much training, many just don't grasp simple aerodynamics. I guess they never made a model plane. This is why I have purchased a gyroplane
Stay safe folks. ,, Estimates suggest that pilot error accounts for approximately 70% to 80% of small aircraft accidents. ''