As Russia decisively wins this war attention now moves into 2 other questions 1. USA must be held responsible for war crimes against Ukrainian people in Ukraine for inciting and prolonging unwinnable war 2. Ukraine supporters deserve utter humiliation
Yes, Russia has the advantage in a war of attrition. However, it may be the cost of "Winning" or keeping Ukrainian territory is more than long term benefits. Think of it. Permanent Western sanctions on Russia with limited tourism and likely ongoing partisan attacks by Ukrainians within Russia while the rest of the world continues its progress. Under this scenario, Russia falls ever further behind China and the West Economically, technologically, and eventually militarily. It might be if there is no Ukraine, there is no Russia. What happens long term when Russia, a country twice the size of the United States becomes ineffective who happens to share borders with a country who is heavily populated, is driven, and effective? The core part of Russia has more a connection with Europe historically and culturally than China. I'm not suggesting China get excluded in any way. However, at some level, it seems Russia is attempting to cannibalize their neighbor in spite of Russia's ample, but way underutilized natural resources and territory. The path towards utilizing those resources and keeping up with developed countries is through peace. The old methods are becoming less effective in our modern, well connected world. For a few percent increase in land, Russia is willing to give up over 10% of their whole GDP annually, indefinitely? How does that make economic sense? This rough calculation does not even consider ongoing costs of the war. These costs are are likely to increase from current levels. While the cost of the war in Russian lives lost and disabilities may not be the top concern right now, war weariness may increase civil unrest, especially if more Russians begin to feel they have little to lose. If a tipping point is reached, things can move very quickly, beyond salvage. There are likely forces that are actively attempting to cause that tipping point to be reached even sooner, potentially causing another breakup of Russia and the instability potentially affecting all that may come with it. The cost of Russia "Winning" has been discussed. Now let's consider the benefit of "Losing" the war has for Russia. For the return of lands back to Ukraine or as negotiated, sanctions against Russia are removed, tourism returns, war costs ceases, partisan activities reduce, and economic opportunities, either directly or indirectly, may exist in rebuilding Ukraine. Lives and disabilities are saved, maybe even a country. Or two. Or all. The path we are on will continue to cause losses for all, some more than others. This is evident. Change the path and we change the inevitable consequences of the continuation of this futile war.
When vatniks start to double down on their fantasies it is a sure sign that the demise of Putin, a war criminal with an international arrest warrant, is coming sooner rather than later.
Ukraine's serious problems being fully noted, full highlighted and fully acknowledged, I will say this. Russia is fucked if the Ukrainians make it to the Sea of Asov by December or early next year. They will cut off the land bridge and then they will assume a defensive dug-in position just as the Russians have. And then the Crimea Bridge will be come down or have long since come down. In which case, that will no longer be a war of attrition. Crimea is trapped like a rat. And that will touch off severe ramifications on the home front for Vlad. Ukraine's chances of severing the land bridge are probably less then 50-50 but not much less than that. It is something the Russians work 24/7 to prevent for very good reasons. The most negative way of looking at it is that the Sea of Asov is about a hundred miles from where the Ukrainian lines were a month ago. In that time, Ukraine has advanced - at most- in a couple areas 2.5 miles more of less. Not a pretty picture. But the other way of looking at it, is that the Russians are spread over a 600-800 mile line and the Ukrainians only need to break through in a couple places to advance. They don't need to take the whole line down. AND almost all of the Russian defense entrenchments- and we can agree that they are serious, serious, serious obstalces ARE IN THE FIRST 15 MILES from the line. After than, the Russians are much less equipped to stop advancing Ukrianian troops. So it is the first fifteen miles that are the problem. Thus the Russians have to worry bigtime about Ukrainians taking even just a mile a month if they start in with cluster bombs etc, blowing up ammo deports etc. Once they break through it is a different story altogether. If the Russians were entrenched and put down mines the full 100 miles to the Asov it would be hopeless. But they have not. The Ukrainians are in trouble- but the Ruskies need to watch their arse bigtime as well. The only reason the Russians are fighting a war of attrition in the Donbass is because they were stopped from taking all of Ukraine. That is not going to happen. All the Russians, both the people and the regime have a big historical boner for Crimea. If the Ukrainians sever it, the entire atmospherics get reshuffled. Vlad fighting a battle at home now from internal opposition and assassins and ambitious clowns who want to be the next clown. If he loses Crimea or just makes its future look risky, he will pay a price at home.
The Ukrainians have to penetrate three separate fortifications in a lot of places to break through. Cluster bombs and a solid group of engineers, with bulldozers perhaps, may help, but losses will inevitably mount for the attacker. Resolution of this war may not be what happens on the battlefield. There are several scenarios to consider, but the common denominator may be the war becomes too costly for Russia in some way(s) to justify continuing on.
The Ukrainians are properly approaching this by concentrating on Russian ammo supply routes and storage depots. The demining is difficult at best but one of their biggest problems is the fierce incoming artillery while they are trying work on demining an area. The Ukrainians strength is and has been to be nimble, ie. you strike, do some damage, and then move on very rapidly. And the Russians artillery reconnaissance has been very poor. The Russian artillery men constantly complain that they get no guidance or intelligence on zeroing in on target and even if they are successful they have no reconnaissance intel to tell them where the next target is. So having the Ukrainians concentrating on very specific routes and then carefully working there to de-mine them works against the Ukrainians strengths, which is to do hit and run work. And it works in the Russians favor because they see then concentrated on an area and know that they are going to be there for a long time to take out the mines. So they need to cut off artillery supply to be able to work on the mines. It is all part of the problem of not having air cover. And that is the same problem with losing the new tanks. Tanks need air cover to protect them. Anyway, that is why the Ukrainians have gone back to where they were last winter which is to concentrate hard on taking out artillery ammo depots. They need to cut down on the incoming to do the work on clearing the mines. Also, the Russians do move through those three lines of defense themselves, so over time the Ukrainians/satellite surveillance etc, learn more about which routes are not mined. Russia is fully capable of wearing down over time. It happened in AFG. Eventually the bodies took their toll at home even though- as is the case today- everyone said the number of dead does not matter to the Russians. They do matter. Just not to the regime and eventually things get problematic at home even in a dictatorship. And, oh by the way, the Russians have already lost more soldiers in Ukraine than in all of the years in AFG.