Russia & Ukraine

Cuddles · Jun 23, 2023

Bugenhagen · Jun 23, 2023

gwb-trading said:
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Maybe I've taken too many shrooms this Friday but I think the end of the world needs an orchestra. Like the Titanic had.

gwb-trading · Jun 23, 2023

Wagner leader calls for rebellion against Russian defense chief, Kremlin orders his arrest
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-russia-nuclear-647a545db4e4628676ff7db5b1bded34

gwb-trading · Jun 23, 2023

gwb-trading · Jun 23, 2023

Bugenhagen · Jun 23, 2023

gwb-trading said:
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Uruguay? I'm going on holidays there soon. Don't go there.

gwb-trading · Jun 23, 2023

vanzandt · Jun 23, 2023

TreeFrogTrader said:
Of note, Prigo continues to go out around Putin and give him a pass and give him an out by positioning Putin as a victim of Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Which would mean that Prigo has decided to follow a course of just ousting the senior military leadership rather than trying to replace Putin.

The problem there is that Putin trusts Shoigu and Gerasimov 100% even if they are inept. Putin has moved into bunker mentality where he more concerned about having loyalist who will not take him out than he is with how competent they are on the battlefield. Prigo is more competent on the battlefield and Prigo sees all the scumbaggery of the senior military leadership and Putin knows that but he also knows that if Prigo gets into the position of replacing Shoigu that eventually he will buddy up with Kadyrov and take Putin out.

In a way, even though Prigo is still being a prick he is also still licking Putin's boots, thinking that he can save Putin as a useful idiot for his own plan. In some ways, it is just Russian history 101, with lots of dark and murky palace coups and intrigue. In WW1 the Russian insiders confronted the Czar for his military failures and let him stay in power but took military command away from him. And then not long after he and his family were killed by the Bosheviks. And round and round we go. Then years later, Gorbachev went for vacation to the Black Sea and there was a coup that overthrew him. But the insiders reversed it but nevertheless demoted Gorby and then moved him out shortly thereafter. And round and round we go.

And even though Putin probably is not seriously sick with anything, that narrative could be used to help him with an exit if needed.

I could see some situation like that down the road with Putin. There is an election coming up next year and the insider hardliners and outside hardliners like Prigo might form a coalition and let Putin have a planned exit related to the election - based on some bullshit "we have accomplished our goals" narrative- while also clearly moving him along. If Prigo does not attain top level defense or presidential power in the near future, then he and Kadyrov will both/each take regions of Russian for themselves. Sort of a warlord arrangement whether they are officially part of Russia but they are no-go zones for Moscow authority. They might even coordinate with Ukraine on that.

It's a mess.

This Prigo thing is a threat to Moscow though. As I said, Prigo is trying out this little attempt to work with Vlad and make Shoigu/Gerasimov the bad guys but I doubt that that will work. And if Vlad ends out just going after Wagner instead, or continuing to allow it, it is really dangerous for Putin. Prigo has the ability to swing over and become "pro-Russian" in a way that the rebel insurgent forces in Russia claim they are. They could join forces very easily and make it a pro-Russian but anti-putin rebellion and not to forget that the Russian insurgents are already coordinating with fighting/for Ukraine. Prigo is not going to fight for Ukraine but if Vlad tries to wipe wagner out it would only take Prigo a micro-second to an agreement with Ukraine that wagner and insurgents will keep the Russians out of the border regions/oblasts in return for Ukrainian support. Then Prigo and Kadyrov will set up fiefdoms in those regions. And Ukraine will just say "I don't give a fuck what you do. Just keep Putin's military back from our borders."

What a mess.
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Let's thicken the plot a little Tree.

Think there's any chance our CIA is, or has been in contact with this Prigozhin character?

He is a merc , and money talks. As do weapons. If he has been having covert communications with our agents and there is a plan in place.. phew... what a feather in the cap of the CIA that would be. Bring this whole thing to end.

And if the CIA has not spoken with him, now's the time. Break out the checkbook, or C-130's filled with cash. We'll save billions in the end.

misterkel · Jun 23, 2023

Rope-a-Dope.
Worked in Bakmut.
Will work again.
Ukraine: "Russia is weak and fighting. Attack."
Russia - Okay, let them come while we Sun Tzu them (appear weak when you are strong, strong when you are weak.).

Kill box. Last major trap before the Russian strike.

70% odds. Not certain.
Whole thing has some level of truth, but less than our media is making it look like.

gwb-trading · Jun 23, 2023

misterkel said:
Rope-a-Dope.
Worked in Bakmut.
Will work again.
Ukraine: "Russia is weak and fighting. Attack."
Russia - Okay, let them come while we Sun Tzu them (appear weak when you are strong, strong when you are weak.).

Kill box. Last major trap before the Russian strike.

70% odds. Not certain.
Whole thing has some level of truth, but less than our media is making it look like.
More...