Russia coming back strong!!!

Discussion in 'Economics' started by bat1, Mar 2, 2008.

  1. bat1


    Goldman Sachs describes Russia's economic performance as "remarkable". UBS calls it "awesome". Russia, India, China and the other large emerging markets are upending the world economic order. Their resurgence has created hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth and lifted tens of millions from poverty.

    Western politicians struggle to adjust to these new realities - particularly when it comes to the old "Cold War" enemy. But Russia is now the world's ninth largest economy - and rising fast. And, in my view, much of the scorn aimed its way is nothing but a small-minded reaction to this rapidly shifting balance of global power.

    Three years ago, Russia overtook Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest crude exporter. And the country's post-Soviet recovery was initially built on a 50 per cent rise in annual crude production.

    Had that increase not happened (had Russia chosen to join OPEC, for example), oil would now be way above $150 a barrel, rather than close to $100. Imagine how much that would now be hurting oil importers like America and the UK.

    But Russia is now far more than "just an oil and gas economy". Retail sales are growing at around 13 per cent a year in real terms - one reason why leading multi-nationals are now piling into Russia. Construction is expanding by 16 per cent a year, and domestic investment by 20 per cent - as Russia rebuilds its shattered post-Soviet infrastructure. Again, this trend is now attracting massive - and welcome - foreign investment.

    The big blot on Russia's economic landscape is inflation - almost 12 per cent last year. Like many fast-growing emerging markets, the country suffers from high food prices. But Russian policy-makers are now allowing the rouble to appreciate more quickly - bearing down on expensive food imports. And, while the rest of the world has been cutting interest rates, Russia's Central Bank just raised them - as part of its bid to tackle inflation.

    This is a country, of course, with many problems. As in any nascent capitalist society (think England in the 1780s, or America in the 1870s), there is corruption and the legal system is fragile.

    But, in recent years, despite factional in-fighting, the direction of economic policy has been clear. Russia now has a 13 per cent basic rate of income tax. Foreign banks can set up at will. Moscow, St. Petersburg and, increasingly, Russia's regions are rippling with stores bearing Western names and products. Despite his "hard-man" image, these developments have all happened since President Putin took office in 1999.

    And today's likely winner - Dmitri Medvedev - will encourage further liberalisation. The 42-year-old has made a series of speeches calling for "reduced taxes" and "decentralisation of power". A trained lawyer, Medvedev will put effort into "improving the legal system".

    Dismiss this as a wish-list if you like. But, again, the direction of travel is clear. Russia wants to be a fully-developed market economy and part of the global system - but on equal terms.

    Will it be pushed around by the West? No. Will it allow the West to pull its historic trick of annexing countries with large natural resources, or treating them as supine? No.

    Above all, Russia wants to trade with the West. But the West keeps blocking its membership of the World Trade Organisation - despite admitting China.

    Since the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia has made huge strides - economically, but also in terms of freedom. Today's election, while imperfect, is a testament to that.

    Western businesses are engaging with Russia as quickly as they can, desperate to gain a foothold in what will soon be one of the world's very biggest economies.

    Western politicians, meanwhile, cling to their cold war clichés - replacing the "iron curtain" with an "iron curtain of the mind".
  2. If crude oil trends lower, Putin will be gone.
  3. balda


    Putin will be gone much sooner.

    Today is an election day in Russia.
  4. toc


    Russia only knows to perform under a strong leader. Any weakling like Gorby or drunkard careless like Yeltsin will bring Russia only headaches and chaos.

    Let us see how the new leader acts. Sergei Ivanov would have made for a firmer and more Russian type leader than Medvedev.

    Russia should seek to do more business with Brazil, China and India than with the west, which only want its natural resources at discount prices.
  5. [​IMG]
  6. BRIC GDP Projection model graphic from GS


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  7. BRIC and G6 Projected GDP in US$


    <img src="">
  8. BRIC and G6 Projected GDP Per Capita in US$


    <img src="">
  9. you're on your own Europe, the US is too broke to fight these Bolshevik assholes again..
  10. I read in the Economist about 6 months ago that energy exports account for 80% of Russia's income. This is what allows them to consume on the retail level as well. They may have stuffed bars, and lots of BMW's now, but if/when the commodity bubble bursts (and it is a bubble), Russia is toast.
    #10     Mar 2, 2008