Unreported by the press, to the best of my knowledge, there were food riots in China around the 20th of Feb. because of the rapid increase in the price of commodities. Rumor has it the big fellas in China have told The Ben Bernank that enough is enough and QEIII better not happen. If the Fed pulls the rug out from under the bond market stock prices are going to fall sharply. Current market behavior suggests the high at 1344 is in. Not making predictions, just trading what happens and what I've heard. For all you Quants out there...it's time to start adjusting your models or running multi-model systems.
Whether that is related or not I don't think they would like QEIII because of the depreciation on debt repayments.
If there was any food riots in China it would be reported in every western media outlet. The big bad China bashing never ceases. Next rumor please...
My bad, it should have read: Unreported by the press, to the best of my knowledge, there were food <b>protests around the 20th of Feb. that could lead to</b> food riots in China because of the rapid increase in the price of commodities. Rumor has it the big fellas in China have told The Ben Bernank that enough is enough and QEIII better not happen. If the Fed pulls the rug out from under the bond market stock prices are going to fall sharply. Current market behavior suggests the high at 1344 is in. Not making predictions, just trading what happens and what I've heard. For all you Quants out there...it's time to start adjusting your models or running multi-model systems. --------------------------------------------- See what happens when you try to trade and type at the same time
Fair enough, I just get really tired of the over-simplification that is rampant around here. Such as "QE2 caused food prices to spike"
The heat wave in Russia last summer destroyed wheat crops. China is looking at the worst drought in 60 years. I think the weather may have more to do with food prices, ala affecting supply, then what the Bernank is doing.
Dollar index: <IMG SRC=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/chartind1CRUvoi.php?ticker=FUTDX> <IMG SRC=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/chartind1CRUvoi.php?ticker=FUTCT> <IMG SRC=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/chartind1CRUvoi.php?ticker=FUTC> <IMG SRC=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/chartind1CRUvoi.php?ticker=FUTKC> The dollar was at a lower level in '08 than today and if we believe that the dollar is the sole reason for high commodity prices, then why is cotton and coffee signficantly higher today than at their '08 levels?
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2011-02/25/c_121121531.htm The title says "food price rose 29% last year" and the picture is of a bunch of cops hitting citizens with sticks. I think that says it all. You can see the date on that site says 2-25-11