This is one reason why I went to live trading from paper trading. It shows that you can miss signals due to being away from the computer, sleeping, etc. Over time, missing setups should even out, ie. should miss some stop outs in addition to winners. Of course, if the system has positive expectancy (as I think the current version is), you would want to take every setup possible.
Agreed, we are starting to hear there is more to r10 then at first blush. That being said, I still think the current setup is profitable but just performing poorly in this environment. 5 days the system has been live and all 5 days have had moves of greater then 1%. I am willing to risk $10,000 trading this setup and/or variations. Unfortunately, we will need more time then just 5 days. At this point, the goal is to get back to breakeven by the end of the month.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lets take a look at last weeks trading. Last week, we had 2 successful trades 2 targets were hit at 5points (10pts total) 2 trailers were hit, 1 at 5.5 and 1 at 3.5 (9pts total) We had 0 full winners (5pt and 10pt target) We had 8 full stop outs (48points total). The target and trailing stop were implemented with the idea that this would help our overall win percentage. Unfortunately this did not occur last week. I do want to point out that both successful trades would have eventually went for full 10pt targets (the way I was papertrading the first system). If I had not implemented the 5pt target and trailer, we would only be down 8 points plus commissions. That is a very manageable loss. By using the stop and trailer in my setup, this gives us very valuable information going forward that we can use to track. Also the information that Pekelo is giving us makes it look like we should use a smaller target (around 3pts) and then move to breakeven and trail. If we don't have a target on that second contract, we could get a runner (every once in a while) and pick up anywhere from 15-30 points before the trailer gets stopped out. For now though, I am going to continue to trade the system as setup and try to gather more data.
My observation is that on a very volatile day such as today, it doesn't work overall, or only with discretions. Also there are just way to many signals, if one wants to take all consistently. Since the spike there were 2 others, all losers...That is altogether like 5-6 trades since the morning and there are still almost 3 hours left... Maybe both the SL and the 10 needs to be adjusted according to volatility, but that is just too much tinkering... For example from the 46.75 LOD had we shorted at 56.75 we would have stopped out just by 2 ticks to fall back to 54, twice... Edit:51...
If you would like to start a thread on this method, by all means go ahead. Please post a link and I will subscribe to the thread. Not meant to be rude...so please don't take it that way. I have enjoyed (so far) creating my own version on r10 and plan to continue this process in the future...along with other systems. I would love to see someone elses process to compare too.
I also took this trade short, sorry did not post in real time. I got stopped out (I think mine was at 60.75 but already closed out infinity software) for 2 full stop outs on the day.
I like to sell strength, out at 1255.5... The accounting for today is kind of messy. So before the spike down we had 4 trades with 14.5 gain. Let's count 3 losers with the spike (although not posted in real time) that is -9 points and this last winner +5.5 That is 8 trades (including 2 overnight) with 11 points and we have quite a few losers, but still nicely up. If I count only the trades after the open that is 1 point with 6 trades, still slightly positive...