I was thinking of that...for now, though, I'd like to propose minimizing "x-factors" like trade management. Keep the variables down to a minimum so we can see how the core concept delivers over time. If it is valid, a 2:1 reward/risk should make it profitable. Once that has been established, then tweak and customize to your heart's content.
On the other hand... when is a reaction swing a reaction swing? We might have this right here, at 1276.75. so do we close?
Trade stopped out. 0 for 1 -3.25 ES Points (I will be using .25 for average slippage and commissions) I'm going to post as real time as I can, however I am papertrading this while I am trading my own strategies (real money) so in the morning sometimes I will not be able to post.
Once the trade got stopped out at 8:30AM EST, I start looking for the next r10 signal. In this case, I would looking to get short at 1286.75 (which did not hit). Then the market moved as low as 1271.25. Now the signal would be 1281.25 short which should have been taken at 10:20AM EST. (Edit: As you can see some people called out the short of 1281.25 in advance even though I was not) Short 1281.25 Stop 1284.25 Target 1271.25 Jagmot I will do my best to post real time, however I have to sleep and trade my real money strategies (with a lot of work being done in the open)
I think the real problem with r10 is managing the trade in a journal setting. Look at the first trade, the trade went more then 8pts in favor, but because of the rules, the trade was stopped out for a 3pt loss. I'm using these simple rules as I believe you can still make money. If I was not papertrading, I could hard code some management such as trailing a stop up to breakeven once we hit +3 and trail from there.
I agree that managing the trade will help more (not always, but I think in r10 yes). However, I am going to keep the system simple for now. As said previously I am going to re evaluate at the end of the calendar year. I may introduce a scale out, a trailing stop, moving stop to breakeven, or a combination.
as vol said i don't think you can have a set profit target of 10 pts. you have to manage the trade based on market conditions at the present. for instance if were in a vicious downtrending down day you might only be able to make 3-4 pts off any long signal. i think the story is one must adapt any type of trading to there own personality and the the day to day market. for instance some people feel comfortable scaling in positions as things go against thema nd others don't. some people feel comfortable with 5 pt stops and others like 2 or 3. if if were that easy to buy here and sell there with no thinking all would do it
We were still in the first trade (and get stopped out right around this time). Hence no trade here for me.
Never traded it with real money and did some work last summer to see if it would help another system better. Only papertrading it now.