Jagmot, The way I understand it was that after 9am you deduct 10 from the high 93-10=83 buy@83 s/l 80 with a goal of 93 or add 10 from the low , whatever it is and sell. Please correct me if I am wrong as i am trying to get the basic rules down "pat"'. Since you were "stopped" at 80 would not your next buy trade be @70 , if at all? Or do you simply retire for the day so that you are not chasing rainbows I am going to ignore the reaction high/lows as I don't understand the discretionary rules that are applied and the other option is simpler. +10 from the lowest number or -10 from the highest number is my kind of number
I've stated before that I'm papertrading the rule. I've tried to make the rules simple enough so that it could be hard coded into an automated system.
If you want to keep it simple, you could try this (trading off of round numbers) http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2022130#post2022130 We have to remember that a big part of winning overall is having risk reward in a good balance. In the example above, we only need a 26% win rate to be ahead. R10, the way I have it setup, you only need a 34% win ratio to be ahead. I subscribe to a minimum 3:1 RR ratio vs. a high winning percentage. You can make the choice on scaling in / scaling out, trailing stop, etc and figure out what works best for you.
Are we higher or lower than the 75 signal ? Jagmot is not trading my rules. It really is simple. Can you not see a reaction high or low on a chart ? This strategy is all about fading extremes, i don't know how to make it any simpler. FWIW, I know for a fact there are at least 5 people on ET who trade my variation profitably but they have yet to post on this thread and I doubt they ever will as they have nothing to prove. On a side note, I have seen others play with numbers on the rule and they have actually came up with different numbers that work profitably as long as the right risk and money management is adhered to.
I traded the reaction high of 86. I'm not sure where you got the 85 from...anyways close enough. Again we could argue that the new reaction high was 82 so then no trade would have been taken... I must use different logic for a reaction high/low then you do. Perhaps you would care to elaborate as I already have concerning my logic for reaction lows/highs. PS. Why was today not a trend day in your opinion? You've stated previously that you wouldn't make trades in a trend day, well today certainly looked like one.
From the reaction high of 85 on cash http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= I avoid shorting on gap downs or long on gap ups. You can't be a partial contrarian if you wanna play my style. "Contrarians never die, they just fade away" props to Thunderdog