Agreed but I am using a simple rule to protect from a trend day rather than a judgement call. This way it could be programmed in and have no human intervention. The rule is 2 stop outs in a row and stop trading for 24 hours (from time of entry). In this case it would obviously be Monday at 1:35PM EST.
I take it that you ignore the lows made prior to the breakout and use the low made just before the breakout?
Many times it will be the absolute low or high, but you need a reaction. On the last failed trade, we used the absolute low, because the price reacted. Price touched 1261.75 and within 5min the price was at 1268. I look at todays move as follows low to high 61.75 to 86.75 consolidating 80.75 to 86.75 then breakout from 82.75 to currently 95.50 I honestly expect this trade to get stopped out anyways. also i posted it over an hour before the trade was made and no questions...why now after the fact? No one wants to discuss the long that we didn't take this morning? I wonder why, is that because it worked? I didn't include it to be fair / add more fuel to the fire because it wasn't called out in advance...however it looks like a legitimate trade to me. I'm just trying to shed a little light because there are so many r10 detractors out there. Who knows if this simple system is even going to work over the long haul...however I think its pretty obvious (at least to me) that just a little bit of money management shows that the r10 has merit and is a profitable system.
You could also combine r10 with a trending system. Here's a super secret system (sarcasm) I use.... Sarcasm because I hope people have figured out this by now...don't short into long trend days and vice versa. Basically, if ES is up or down more than 15pts, only buy/sell 50% retracements. I do this all the time, although I will leave it to you (the trader) to figure out stops and targets etc. Today we consolidated but didn't retrace far enough for me to get long. Jag
Its sad, I've seen you say it multiple times on ES thread...and I've said it on the thread as well but yea most people haven't.
I'm starting to see clues as to why many get confused by the signals. It seems to be interpreted differently by others. Your stop to me was right near the r10 signal from the previous reaction high of 86.25. In regards to the trend, had you taken the long signal this morning and trailed the stop, then you would not have 2 stop outs on the day for -6. FWIW, I don't think this strategy can be programmed due to multiple variables and human discretion on when to trail stops, etc.
The question was after the fact because I wasn't following the journal in real time. Comparing the journal to a chart I saw lower lows than the reaction low you used and was curious as to why. Now I know. Thank you.
jag-- shouldn't it be 2 for 4 2 x 9.75 = 19.5 2 x (-3.25) = -6.5 balance of 13 not 16.75 what am i missing? newbie463