ruby tuesdays balance sheet is awful, shitty business to be in now too. that company is highly likely to go bk within 1-2 years. tms is interesting but its not really going anywhere. free cash flow, ebitda numbers are decnt relative to debt load. its no ruby tuesday. at $7 its risky short imo. but thx for the name. love the rt short...
I made 40% already on the TMS short....so a bit late...will cover... Also, not a current short, cuz i couldn't get shares- but CC and TRMP are junk too... Also, although I didn't short in my portfolio, I've had JSDA on my short list and even a little blog piece a while back...they might be done...people aren't buying expensive soda cuz it's cute anymore....distributors are dropping them....
If we could only find short plays like RT at the start of their fall off the cliff. I looked back at both RT and TMS and saw that by applying a simple indicator like 50 ma cross below 200 ma to pick the entry point would've worked beautifully. But we know it's not that simple. I can run a filter to spit out 50/200ma crossovers all day long but not all of those will end up like RT and TMS. Additional criteria are needed to systematically identify these types. Probably a combination of technical breakdown and deteriorating fundamentals would work best. How bout we try to work together on this and develop a list of criteria for finding shorting candidates like RT and TMS.
^yeah, but there's a problem. The small cap short space is tiny. There's very little liquidity, hence the profit potential from the inefficiency for the little guy. So, we'd be fighting for shares to short. seriously, it's that tight....I mean, 3 guys, it'd be cool. But enough people read this, it will wreck my strategies. Like I said, I've been trying to short TRMP for months and I can't get enough shares to short. Same with CC...a week now, no success. You wanna talk GOOG or whatever, fine. I don't have any clue where that's going. It's for full time traders to mess with that... Everything I trade in, is shrouded in some sort of informational inefficiency on purpose. It's the only way a positional trader beats the institutions at their own game....they can't really play in the stuff I trade. Also, as far as catching these going down-you can. The discounting isn't immediate. Again, there's no sell side coverage, because it's useless to institutional investors. Individual investors are often slower to act, and less rational. Thus, an informed investor can beat the less informed investor.
i hear ya wutang. no worries there. just share whatever info you are willing on these boards. look at RT today - its up 5% lol. i shorted a little at 8.30. how the f is this stock up after those earnings. also, cc, funny you mention it. that was one of my big short plays over the last year. i think i had posted about that a while back. i covered the stock around 5-6 (a little early, i know). my own opinion is that its a risky short here, and im worried a bit about the large holders who seem to be taking an activist bent in this stock. its a real POS for sure, but unlike rt whose other comps are doing very poorly, w a stock like CC the holders think it can be the next best buy w some strategic shifts. if wattles can get his ppl as the new directors the stock can go up quite a bit on takeover speculation/strategic changes. i havent really looked at trump yet...
Basically, the short term spikes in CC and RT just help disprove rational expectations theory....with RT, the float is small enough now that they're will be a lot of volatility on the way down, I'm sure. Again, I'm longer term so I really can't offer any short term analysis. If I look at the daily moves I get an upset stomach. Anyhow-thanks for the CC analysis...makes me feel better for not shorting at these levels....even if not by choice. You want another good short play from the citron report, which I can't take credit for? BIDZ......it's up and it's junk. Total pump and dump....