RSI 25 Explosions System?

Discussion in 'Educational Resources' started by newtoet, Mar 27, 2004.

  1. newtoet


    Anyone tried this from - claims an 88% win rate?

    Feedback appreciated - if anyone wants to split the cost, PM me.
  2. balda


    Do not buy it.

    It is based on hypothetical results it is in the past, market has changed. System is over optimized for sales purposes. You might have to wait a decade until system will perform well again and you need to know when it performs well. Take a look in journal section on "Tri Pak's ES swing system" it makes money today but it didn't a year ago, and it probably will not in a near future.
  3. newtoet


    Thanks Balda - I appreciate the advice. I did notice that the results were based on back-testing, not actual trading and assumed a good deal of optimization.

    I usually delete these emails, but have experimented with RSI in the past so it caught my eye.
  4. What is the system is RSI25 explosion? I mean how do you trigger for trading setup i.e entry, exit etc.

    Thaking you in advance for sharing
  5. Somebody should just post the code for the bullshit system as a way to teach these crooked vendors!
    crooks scamming the small-time trader out of their account starter money.
    What a shame!
  6. 88% perhaps but what is not said is that it is a rather a CONDITIONIAL PROBABILITY noted traditionally P(A | B) (probability of A knowing B) where B is the market context or global trend that is to say one must know before if the market is globally bullish or Bearish; let's remark that it could also be sideways but let's simplify for the demo then I will suppose that P(B)=1/2 since I don't have any other knowledge on the design of the system.
    What we really need to know is P(A) and not only P(A | B).

    Thanks to Bayes Axiom on conditional probability we know that:
    p(A and B) = p(B) * p(A/B) (also = p(A) * p(B/A) but not used)
    so that p(A) = 0.5 * 0.88 = 0.44 = 44% is an estimation of the real probability of this system :)

  7. Turok


    That is EXACTLY what I was going to say Harry. What a coincidence.


  8. monetoz


    It looks as if they simply ripped off one of the free systems available at WealthLab site, that repeatadly buy when RSI is extremely low.
  9. Most of the trades occurred during the buy-the-dip 90's, and the sample size was too small.

    They should be ashamed of themselves for foisting that bs upon the public.
  10. Mut1ey


    How do you know it is based on conditional probability?
    #10     Apr 2, 2004