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# RSI 25 Explosions System?

Discussion in 'Educational Resources' started by newtoet, Mar 27, 2004.

1. ### newtoet

Anyone tried this from tradingmarkets.com - claims an 88% win rate?

Feedback appreciated - if anyone wants to split the cost, PM me.

2. ### balda

It is based on hypothetical results it is in the past, market has changed. System is over optimized for sales purposes. You might have to wait a decade until system will perform well again and you need to know when it performs well. Take a look in journal section on "Tri Pak's ES swing system" it makes money today but it didn't a year ago, and it probably will not in a near future.

3. ### newtoet

Thanks Balda - I appreciate the advice. I did notice that the results were based on back-testing, not actual trading and assumed a good deal of optimization.

I usually delete these emails, but have experimented with RSI in the past so it caught my eye.

4. ### HAPPY FACE

What is the system is RSI25 explosion? I mean how do you trigger for trading setup i.e entry, exit etc.

Thaking you in advance for sharing

Somebody should just post the code for the bullshit system as a way to teach these crooked vendors!
crooks scamming the small-time trader out of their account starter money.
What a shame!

88% perhaps but what is not said is that it is a rather a CONDITIONIAL PROBABILITY noted traditionally P(A | B) (probability of A knowing B) where B is the market context or global trend that is to say one must know before if the market is globally bullish or Bearish; let's remark that it could also be sideways but let's simplify for the demo then I will suppose that P(B)=1/2 since I don't have any other knowledge on the design of the system.
What we really need to know is P(A) and not only P(A | B).

Thanks to Bayes Axiom on conditional probability we know that:
p(A and B) = p(B) * p(A/B) (also = p(A) * p(B/A) but not used)
so that p(A) = 0.5 * 0.88 = 0.44 = 44% is an estimation of the real probability of this system

7. ### Turok

That is EXACTLY what I was going to say Harry. What a coincidence.

JB

8. ### monetoz

It looks as if they simply ripped off one of the free systems available at WealthLab site, that repeatadly buy when RSI is extremely low.

9. ### PoundTheRock

Most of the trades occurred during the buy-the-dip 90's, and the sample size was too small.

They should be ashamed of themselves for foisting that bs upon the public.

10. ### Mut1ey

How do you know it is based on conditional probability?

#10     Apr 2, 2004
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