"...we [that is, Roubini and Setser] argue that there is a meaningful risk the Bretton Woods 2(they mean the world fiat money standard) system will unravel before the end of 2006." guess that didn't turned out very good did it. These guys are bearish about everything, the only thing they are bullish on is their bank account equity curve with all the speeches and books they sell. Do not believe in their biased research where they handpick negative statistcs and then try to overwhelm their readers in order to sell their 'expertise'. We might have a recession in 2007?sure, however we could just as easly not have one, or have a very brief one
Yes , I agree that this is the new way of making money. This is a "Sophist" tactic, where you basically know that you can't know the truth, but you chose one side of a problem and compile evidence towards your chosen bias. And you will find enough followers to buy your products, be a book, a movie, talk-show, foreign policies, economics, etc... Examples which come in mind, but not limited: Weapons of mass destruction, Anne Coulter, Michael Moore, Permanent bears, permanent bulls (Larry Kudlow), the court system (DAs/Lawyers). But it is our responsibility to take all of this with a grain of salt and try to stay informed, even if it is difficult in this world of over-loaded information.
In any case it is way to soon to know whether Roubini and Setser are right or wrong. We are still near the top of an economic cycle fueled by a borrowing rampage and the lowest interest rates since God knows when. Let's wait and see what develops during 2007.