Roubini Calls U.S. Growth ‘Dismal and Poor,’ Predicts Slowing

New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who anticipated the financial crisis, called the fourth quarter surge in U.S. economic growth “very dismal and poor” because it relied on temporary factors.

Roubini said more than half of the 5.7 percent expansion reported yesterday by the government was related to a replenishing of inventories and that consumption depended on monetary and fiscal stimulus. As these forces ebb, growth will slow to just 1.5 percent in the second half of 2010, he said.

“The headline number will look large and big, but actually when you dissect it, it’s very dismal and poor,” Roubini told Bloomberg Television in an interview at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “I think we are in trouble.”

Roubini said while the world’s largest economy won’t relapse into recession, unemployment will rise from the current 10 percent, posing social and political challenges.

“It’s going to feel like a recession even if technically we’re not going to be in a recession,” he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqLMEUObhysc

 

Finally, someone in America who isn't Ron Paul or Peter Schiff that genuinely seems to get it. Yes, there's going to be bugger all going on in the economy regardless of whether we're in a recession or not because of the national debt. The same for the UK really, though the UK probably has a better chance of getting rid of the debt than America.

 

Real GDP growth was around 1.6 or so...the rest...fluff...

Bar any new "Tech Revolution" or "Energy Revolution" advancing those industries.....the next decade will mirror that of Japan...1% -maybe 3% GDP per quarter.

American Consumer is on the brink of going under in droves.

There will be two sides to the coin.....poor and wealth. MiddleClass will have a small window of opportunity to climb the ladder....into the wealth arena...however, most will fall to proverty.....with their Debt outstripping their networth and what they take home.

These is not a doomsday outlook. It is reality and for those who get it...they will fair well. For those the don't ......its gona be a struggle.

 

EMR - You are exactly right. Actually, last night I read Howard Simons article in this months <B>ActiveTrader</b> magazine and it was so good I realized it would probably be the best article I'd read in the next year or two.

Howard basically takes this global macro perspective to things that break down every issue the US and its global peers have to deal with right now. He explains virtually the origins of every asset bubble over the past 20 years, and its consequences going forward.

I'd do the article a disservice by quoting only portions of it.

He basically filled in all the missing gaps for my view of the economy in a global sense and where we are heading.

This is the start of it:

http://www.activetradermag.com/index.php/c/The_AT_Interview/d/Howard_Simons

 

Thanks for the link.