This position is holding on by a very small margin at this point, as "FV" on this time-frame is now almost at this entry point and on crossover the system throws in the towel.
I got private msgs on target. I don't know since the model is dynamic. Where it exits changes tick-by-tick. Also, since I am not a fan of scaling out, it is even possible that this could turn into a losing trade [extremely unlikely since I do use Bayesian stops] FWIW, if CL were 43.15 ish right now, the system would exit. The very long thread on ET "Scaling Out is inferior" is actually very interesting and worth reading. Interestingly enough, I don't think anyone there mentioned Bayes stops. In the 30 years I have been doing this, I am almost to the belief that you can enter randomly, and if you manage your stops in an extremely intelligent manner, you would probably make money. As I have stated elsewhere, this is probably not that groundbreaking, since stoping out is essentially highly correlated to whether you should enter in the first place.
I am surprised at oils resiliency here and I would have expected it would be in the mid 43s. True, the dollar is weakening today due to lower bond yields in the US, and lower dollar usually is a tail wind for oil. However, imo the chance of a recession, with a FED that is on a path to normalization, means that the hit that oil "should" take from the lower demand is of greater weight than the hit the dollar is taking. Since the US is becoming less reliant on importing oil, consumption is stronger than interest rates. At least in theory since 2+2 does not equal 4 in markets. So holding tight. Target on oil by the model is changing, but a 43.20 ish is close to exit. By the theory above, USDCAD seems to be mispriced, as well USDNOK. They are playing the interest rate side instead of the demand side, which imo is wrong. So USD will probably gain against both "soon".
Bizarre. Model CL "FV" has skyrocketed. Looking over for bugs but I don't see any. Out CL 44.27 + 1.96