Rookie journal

Discussion in 'Forex' started by tom123, Feb 21, 2008.

  1. tom123


    Hello all. I'm a newbie to forex. started learning and practicing a demo account about a month ago.
    Searching for education along the way,I discovered Elite Trader web site, and see the great value of reading what others have to say, especially interested in gaining any insight and understanding from experienced experts here, but I also know that it can be a chore for them to respond to all my rookie questions and comments when I go to their I decided to post my own thread here, and hope to share thoughts with anyone interested. All comments are welcome. Newbies and experts. I might try to post a few daily thoughts as I go along this learning process. and I hope this idea of the rookie journal is ok by the moderator. I dont know if this web site is just for experts.moderator,you can close this thread if you need to. but since it seems a great place to exchange thoughts on forex a rookie, I know I can benefit by any comments experts might have . I find when I post in their threads,I dont always see a reply. so they can contribute here if they like.
    again,all constructive comments are welcome.

    I have a few thoughts I would pose to the experts if I was in a conversation..... some observations I think I see....
    1) do you think the euro/usd had a solid balance point (historical).... at 135.... and that the sharp rise to current levels (since summer 2007) is 'too high,too fast' and that the euro could (should?) drop back to as low as 140? and even lower?

    is that possible/plausible?

    2) If the euro is going to hit you think its likely to not happen for a few months ? instead of a few days or weeks?

    3) what do you expect to happen to euro/usd (or any currencies) if there is another major war/attack by the US in the coming year?
    or any other major news events? do they really have a great effect on the currency movements?

    4)Do you think that the 'government/finance controllers' (I'll call them that) have a ...'Essential Plan' (call it that).... to bring the currencies closer to parity,to manufacture that movement.... so that the usd/can is closer to parity, the usd/jpy is closer to parity, and the euro too ? such that the euro drops back to levels like ....pick your comfort zone....125? 120 ? 130? something major like that?

    5) is this sharp rise in the euro in the last 9 months due mostly to the crashing US housing bubble, and general state of failing economy?

    6) what caused the euro to drop in 2005 ?

    7) Dear experts, what is your prefferred way to trade Forex?
    did you evolve to this way? starting with scalping? and learning longer comfort zones? is there one way easier than others?

    8) Does candlestick analysis work well? are there other methods of examining ''waves'' that work well ?

    9) Is there no end to the upward movement of the euro/usd?? just because it went from 120 to 130 mand there to 140 does it guarantee 150.?does that guarantee 160? is that how it works?
    what would be a reasonable trading range now? 140 to 155?
    145 to 150?

    10) Whats the difference between trading forex spot and futures?
    ( Thanks for being patient with all my rookie questions...)

    ok...back to watching the bottom fall out .... :eek:
  2. 1. Euro will not get below 135, unless oil prices drop to $70.

    2. If the euro hits 1.50, it will be short lived, to get back into the 1.45-1.50 range.

    3. Iran rials and Israel New shekels may well devalue in case of another war. Main currencies would be relatively unaffected, unless the conflict escalates to be regional.

    4. Central Banks move the market. The thing is that very few people (read George Soros) know exactly what central banks really want. They may aim for some fixed rate, but not necessarily parity.
    Be aware that banks may want to actually devalue their currency to be more competitive in their exports.

    5. Oil exporting countries got more dollars, because of higher oil prices. They sell some of this dollars, and they got every time more dollars to sell.

    6. Oil prices could not get higher for some months, and Europe economy was in bad shape (low growth, high inflation).

    7. Following trends (if there are trends). When not wait (or trade other markets). I'm NOT a big fan of daytrading/scalping in ANY market.

    8. For daily candles, stars and days with short ranges indicate weakening of the wave, and an impending reversal. Leave some room for fluctuation as they seldom pick the exact bottom/top.

    9. When there are trends, clear trends, straight up (or down) like an arrow, everything is possible.
    When the trend is broken and they become rangebound (as now in the EUR/USD), it is hard that they will go for higher highs (or lower lows) without retracing a significant amount.

    10. Futures is a regulated market, Leverage is more than enough (about 15:1), enough liquidity, there is no bucketing, stop-loss-running, or other dishonest broker practices.

    I can only see two advantages in retail spot forex:
    A. There are more currencies than those available in futures (therefore more potential opportunities, developing countries tend to see their currencies devalue).
    B. Some brokers have mini lots ($10k) great for learning without risking a lot.
  3. tom123


    CRG...thanks very much for your reply...much thought to consider.
    so it sounds like the value of the dollar in relation to currencies is relative to the price of oil,as one component...
    in some way.....
    ....... I might take a look at futures some time by the sound of it.

    thanks again for your thoughts.