True,Thankfully CA is safe for dems in the foreseeable future. Texas is the republicans beast,and they will lose it in about 15-20 years imo
None.What you call oversampling is party demographic fact.If there are more registered democrats then republicans and polls show the same that isn't oversampling http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/voters-political-parties/52171688/1 Registered Democrats still dominate the political playing field with more than 42 million voters, compared to 30 million Republicans and 24 million independents
Once again the questions becomes... do you care polling science and predicting election results or slanting polls. If you are trying to predict elections. You use past data to predict turnouts. You realize there are a lot of dems who dont vote... probably because they are not dead or do not exist like the millons of mickey mouse voters signed up by groups like acorn.
I prefer polls that dont tamper with or weigh their results Most polls ask 30 -50 questions,anybody who stays on the phone and answers all those questions is a likely voter imo.A person who doesn't plan on voting will hang up the phone.Dead voters and mickey mouse voters also aren't likely to complete the poll.Most democrats who aren't likely to vote are already weeded out of the polls
If democrats actually had a 10 point advantage in who shows up to vote, do you actually think it would be possible for Republicans to even be elected? The fact of the matter is that Republicans would have to basically run a clean sweep on independents if those demographics were a realistic interpretation of who was going to show up at the polls, yet in any given election it ends up being about 50/50 so in order to believe that democrats are going to show up with a 10 point advantage come voting time, you pretty much have to defy basic logic.
Its not about what you prefer. its about what has worked in the past. I recently read an article with stated that 8% of dems left the dems. And note the dems are losing voters like crazy. I read that 8% of dems have abandoned ship. I am willing to bet your polls are using old stats? Why do you think obama is barely beating prison inmates and other? Obama is being kept afloat by mis leading polls. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2818073/posts Battleground-State Voters Leaving the Democratic Party National Journal ^ | December 7, 2011 | Josh Kraushaar Posted on Thu Dec 08 2011 20:30:49 GMT-0800 (Pacific Standard Time) by neverdem President Obama and his re-election team have prided themselves on their well-oiled get-out-the-vote effort. But a new study from the centrist think tank Third Way suggests Democrats are losing ground organizationally in nearly all of the key battleground states in the general election. The group's analysis found that, in the eight politically-pivotal states that register voters by party, a significant number have left the Democratic party since 2008, with many choosing to register as independents. Over 825,000 registered Democrats in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania have departed the party rolls since President Obama's election in 2008, a much more significant share than the number of Republicans (378,000) who have done the same. Meanwhile, the number of registered independents has ticked upwards by 254,000. (RELATED: GOP Candidates to Trump Debate: You're Fired) "In 2012, Independents are likely to turn out in their largest numbers in 35 years, and President Obama will need those Independent votes even more than he did in 2008, if he hopes to be re-elected," Third Way analysts Lanae Erickson and Michelle Diggles write in the report. (RELATED: Obama's Oops: President Confuses Texas and Kansas -- VIDEO) The Democratic decline is especially stark in Iowa and Florida, two early Republican primary states where Democrats have lost significant ground. In Iowa, the number of registered Democrats has declined 7.9 percent since 2008, while the number of registered Republicans has increased by two percent. In the Sunshine State, Democratic registration decreased by five percent, while Republican registration dipped 2.2 percent.
The polls you are discrediting have worked just fine in the past jem Here are McCain -Obama polls in May 2008,worked just fine in predicting an Obama victory as they will do again this year
Look we are all getting very suspicious of this poll crap. I will bet those polls were not over sampling by 7 to 10 percent in the end. Remember when McCain started to grab the lead or got close. I will bet that is the time the over sampling stopped.
Yet the majority of the May 2008 polls called the race how it turned out(With the tampered with and weighed rasmussen and gallup polls being way off )