because it has been wrong many times as well. you sound like you trade. you have seen stock letter guru... pick out their well chosen examples. what sort of record does intrade have over all of its election results... 90 60 30 7 3 and 1 day out. They got smoked on the supreme court. They have gotten smoked on other races. I made a good living in the markets for 7 years because there were plenty of dumb money. dumb money is everywhere. look at all the people who believed obamacare was not a tax. look at all the people who still believe the Federal Reserve is not privately owned.
Well Silver had even more optimistic (for Obama) probabilities on his site and he got 49/50 States in 2008. He was uncanny on the representation in Congress as well. FWIW, I used the touch of 32/100 to lay off my remaining action. I have lost interest, but will still be here to collect from my buddy Tsing and also Piggy.
Ya i quoted you awhile back but i don't recall getting a response. I am going to be banned for another bet with RCG if ocommie wins.. so i will pm you. Just so you know if you post to the board i can't respond.
I read that silver was total bozo in 2010 and then switched when everyone in the world new the republicans were killing it. That is the thing... that is why I know silver is a biased clown. How can you look at poll internals and come away and say obama has a 70 percent chance of winning Ohio. Almost all the polls are within the margin for error or very close to it. Many of them slant to Ds by a large amount and still have it close... Many show that Romney has a significant lead with independents.