http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=240586 http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-obama-thin-ice_636873.html
Here's one example: http://hotair.com/archives/2012/04/10/wapoabc-poll-adds-seven-points-to-dem-advantage-in-sample/
The responsible way to poll would be to match your pool up with the turnout at recent elections. if the election was 33% Dems 33% R 33% I and one percent other. Your polling pool of likely voters should match the election pool. But, it turns out if you read the data behind most of these polls, the left uses far too large a democrat pool on a relative basis. Someone linked to this on a recent ET thread. -------------- nevermind I see it was covered above.
Its a pretty simple question, if you arent willing to denounce the statement that Obama will win by more than 5%, then it must mean that you actually believe that is a possibility..... I will give you three to one odds on that the day after the election if it is within 5% points, i leave for 3 months, if it is more than 5% points you leave for 1 month..... zero posts from either side after the election, until the time is up how bout that?
They said this - Well, for starters, the poll has an inexplicably large Democratic advantage â the party breakdown in the poll is 34 percent Democratic, 23 percent Republican, and 34 percent independent. That is not a statistical poll, why would anyone post such a thing, much less try to present it as any type of indicator? Real polling goes about 49-51% maximum between opposite voting groups. And this I noted while searching - The national breakdown of the Tea Party composition is 57 percent Republican, 28 percent Independent and 13 percent Democratic, according to three national polls.
Anyone would make a bet with a 5 point advantage, suckers bet. I'll bet that the race is less than 5% either side. Any takers? Of course not. Makes no sense. A bet is a win or lose. Not sure where you guys are coming from, but everyone knows the race is within a couple of points.