Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Apr 13, 2012.

  1. Righties are constantly accusing democratic and centrists posters of having multiple screens names,they are a delusional bunch
     
    #2821     Oct 10, 2012
  2. Ricter

    Ricter

    Nevertheless the stock market is currently pricing in the now higher odds of a Romney win.
     
    #2822     Oct 10, 2012
  3. jem

    jem

    ahem... I thought you told me we don't care about how the samples were made just whether a pollster was correct in the past.

    now do you understand why sample makeup is so vital.

    but,nevertheless it was the independents who swung so dramatically in those polls. and secondly... registered voters does not matter... what matters is current voter ID.

    Finally, if pew did not weight the poll towards the republicans but it was a truly random sample that came out that way..

    you told me that was the correct way to poll.

    was it wrong then or wrong now.

     
    #2823     Oct 10, 2012
  4. Is it only in America that a man who tells the truth except when he moves his lips could win a debate?
     
    #2824     Oct 10, 2012
  5. jem

    jem

    #2825     Oct 10, 2012
  6. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    This is an adjustment of the voters themselves becoming "likely voters", as the "registered voters" in the survey declined accordingly, however - still favoring democrats. Additionally, if you look at the data in the registered voters, it clearly favors voters who voted Obama the last time around, regardless of affiliation.
     
    #2826     Oct 10, 2012
  7. jem

    jem

    great point... I was going to open that poll up.. when I saw the new IBD numbers.
     
    #2827     Oct 10, 2012
  8. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    #2828     Oct 10, 2012
  9. It is the wrong way to poll imo, its the opposite of the way they have been polling the last 6 months and 2008.Polls are good or bad because of their methodology,once their methodology changes the poll changes. Other polls are now including more R's then D's .Including more R's then D's in a poll has a history of colossal failure.Read theories as to why the change in their mythology a month before the election but I haven't formed an opinion yet .In my opinion it is better for Obama if his voters think it will be a close race rather then them thinking it is a landslide Obama win .In my opinion Obama wins


    Rasmussen is also polling incorrectly imo but it doesn't seem as though they have changed their model.In other news in their latest electoral map Romney has loss EC votes


    Rasmussen map last month

    [​IMG]




    Rasmussen current map



    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard

    [​IMG]
     
    #2829     Oct 10, 2012
  10. jem

    jem

    I warned you crooked slanted polls adjust their samples to more Rs as they get closer to elections and then they pretend there was as late momentum shift...

    nevertheless, could you point out which polls are now oversampling Rs... I have not seen any... it is either virtually balanced or skewed democrat.



     
    #2830     Oct 10, 2012