Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says August 22, 2012 ⢠A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney. The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. âBased on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,â said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program. According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obamaâs 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties. âFor the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,â said Berry. âThe economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If itâs the former, the president may receive credit for the economyâs trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.â Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election. The study will be published this month in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. It will be among about a dozen election prediction models, but one of only two to focus on the Electoral College. While many forecast models are based on the popular vote, the Electoral College model developed by Bickers and Berry is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors looked at per capita income, which indicates the extent to which people have more or less disposable income. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income. Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately. Their results show that âthe apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,â Berry said. The results indicate, according to Bickers, âthat the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.â In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had any statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a partyâs national convention; the home state of the vice president; or the partisanship of state governors. In 2012, âWhat is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,â Bickers said. In Colorado, which went for Obama in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 51.9 percent of the vote to Obamaâs 48.1 percent, again with only the two major parties considered. The authors also provided caveats. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and close tallies in certain states. The current data was taken five months in advance of the Nov. 6 election and they plan to update it with more current economic data in September. A second factor is that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall an unexpected direction. âAs scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,â Berry said. Election prediction models âsuggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy,â Bickers said. âItâs not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.â Contact: Kenneth Bickers, 303-492-2363 bickers@colorado.edu Michael Berry, 303-556-6244 michael.berry@ucdenver.edu Peter Caughey, CU-Boulder media relations, 303-492-4007 David Kelly, CU Denver media relations, 303-315-6374
Even though the race is close, I think Odumbo is still a slight favorite to win the election. However, Romney has much more upside potential compared to Odumbo.
even the polls slanted to Dems are within the margin for error. jem balance algo now has romney up by more than the margin for error. and the states are super tight now too. in fact if you click the electoral map you will notice rcp just took missori away from romney... by using a typo.... its says obama is leading by one... but if you click on the state romney is crushing obama in most polls... and even the other states in obama's column are there courtesy of the slanted shit polls. Democracy Corps (D) 8/23 - 8/27 1000 LV 3.1 49 47 Obama +2 CBS News 8/22 - 8/26 1051 RV 3.0 46 45 Obama +1 ABC News/Wash Post 8/22 - 8/25 857 RV 4.0 46 47 Romney +1 CNN/Opinion Research 8/22 - 8/23 719 LV 3.5 49 47 Obama +2 FOX News 8/19 - 8/21 1007 LV 3.0 44 45 Romney +1 Gallup (Wednesday) 7-Day Tracking 3050 RV 2.0 47 46 Obama +1 Rasmussen (Wednesday) 3-Day Tracking 1500 LV 3.0 46 45 Obama +1 Resurgent Republic (R) 8/16 - 8/22 1000 LV 3.1 46 45 Obama +1 Associated Press/GfK 8/16 - 8/20 885 RV 4.1 47 46 Obama +1 NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 8/16 - 8/20 1000 RV 3.1 48 44 Obama +4 Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 8/15 - 8/19 1149 LV 2.9 46 45 Obama +1 LA Times/USC 8/13 - 8/19 954 LV 3.2 48 46 Obama +2
This is the RCP poll - all within margin. The closest can recall and some of these polls are still slanted to the Dems. Bottom line is Ryan tightened up these polls and if the election were today it would be decided by party turnout. Which is probably going to be the case the rest of the way. Independents are leaning towards Romney so... If R turns out more they win. If D turns out... like 2008 they would win... If D only turns out a bit more than R... it will be very close. Rasmussen (Friday) Romney +1 Gallup (Friday) Obama +1 Democracy Corps (D) Obama +2 CBS News 8/22 - 8/26 Obama +1 ABC News/Wash Post Romney +1 CNN/Opinion Research Obama +2 FOX News 8/19 - 8/21 Romney +1 Resurgent Republic (R) Obama +1
Well then you're an idiot not to pay $43/100 on intrade right now to the limits of your free cash. Who doesn't take an arb paying nearly 135%?
I've been repeatedly telling jem et al to take advantage of their considerable edge. As an aside, I think your post to jem could have been much shorter without any loss of content:
1. some of us have licenses from multiple states to protect and would not risk them for a few bucks. 2. all of us know that a sitting president could benefit from a war or other problem and we are not sure what a a chicago mob in the wh might do. so the intrade odds are about where they should be... they are discounting a potential change in circumstances not likely seen in polls. a smart trader would understand that.
A smart trader would not defer to complete BS poll results when the money line defies those same polls. If you weren't completely FOS you'd show us your intrade ticket. You should be jumping up and down on the pricing error! Lift those offers! If you won't then wtf is your point? You can't spend poll results.