WASHINGTON -- With the first of the nominating conventions less than a week away, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll adds more evidence that the choice of Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney's running mate has not been a "game changer" in the 2012 race for the White House. The latest poll of 1,000 registered voters nationwide, surveyed from Aug. 16 to 20, found President Barack Obama with a narrow 4 percentage point lead (48 to 44 percent) over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney. That's slightly narrower than the previous NBC/WSJ poll in July, which showed Obama leading by 6 points (49 to 43 percent). Support for each candidate in the newest survey fell within the margin of sampling error. That new result squares with the HuffPost Pollster chart, based on all available public polls, which shows no significant change in the Obama-Romney race since the spring.
Note.. The JEM balance algo converts that poll to Romney plus 3. I believe that poll was 45D / 39 R. the algo upconverts it to a balanced election and likely voters.
Perhaps I should start a blog. To get my jem poll more visibility. I will reserve the first comment for you AK. Lucrum and you can be a guest commentators as well. for instance... it should be this good. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3t-DuN8t6U
Great idea, I would read it. I would like to see a before and after type of thing. Show that either you prove your assertions, or maybe the polls are correct and predict the actual outcome. Regardless of our differences, that would be a good blog. Maybe you and AK can work together on it?
There may be no need for a blog or the JEM balance algo... Fox news poll just had a massive swing toward Romney and it is still slanted to Obama. Post Ryan... the entire shaded area of RCP... smallest Obama lead I recall... If you use the JEM balance algo... you see Romney is out in front by a good margin But this is straight from RCP. These the polls they choose balance algo not appliced. Fox news poll had massive change. this fox news poll has just seen a massive switch. Even with 42 D / 38R FOX News 8/19 - 8/21 Romney +1 Rasmussen Tracking Romney +1 Gallup Tracking Tie Associated Press/GfK 8/16 - Obama +1 NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl44 Obama +4 Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun Obama +1 LA Times/USC Obama +2
as I said RCP and I show the post Ryan polls in the shaded areas. The polls in the white area are meaningless. Mitt is doing great. Obama is out of money. By the end of the convention... there will be 2 issues. Obama's economic record and agenda, and Obamacare and its 700 billion dollar theft from Floridians medicare.