Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Apr 13, 2012.

  1. About a quarter to 3 in the morning. I get up in about 12 hours to get ready for trading. What time is it where you are?

    We all trade the same markets, I'm assuming.
     
    #1971     Aug 21, 2012
  2. 2010 was a non presidential election.Non presidential elections have lower democratic turnout
     
    #1972     Aug 21, 2012
  3. I saw the humor, but I am serious about asking you your thoughts about the numbers JEM posted about samplings involved. This is missing something, perhaps independents? Not sure if you had gotten into this before?
     
    #1973     Aug 21, 2012
  4. pspr

    pspr

    Some Europeans trade U.S. markets. Others trade markets in Europe. Those are odd hours even for trading U.S. markets from Europe. It's nearly 8 PM here.
     
    #1974     Aug 21, 2012


  5. Most voter identification polls and actual voter registration show there are more democrats then republicans,that's why polls have more democrats then republicans




    Dec 2011 USA today


    http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/voters-political-parties/52171688/1



    Registered Democrats still dominate the political playing field with more than 42 million voters, compared to 30 million Republicans and 24 million independents







    http://elkodaily.com/democrats-outp...cle_a53e09de-a78b-11e1-ae8e-001a4bcf887a.html




    Democrats outpace GOP in voter registrations


    CARSON CITY (AP) — Nevada Democrats outpaced Republicans in new voter registrations leading up to the state primary.

    The secretary of state's office Friday reports that from May 1 through May 22 when primary registration closed, Democrats registered 4,322 active voters, compared with 2,254 registered by Republicans. The number of active registered nonpartisans increased by 2,544 during the same time period.

    Statewide, Democrats now hold a 38,792 voter advantage over Republicans. But the gap is far less than the 100,000 voter edge Democrats had going into the 2008 general election.







    http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/state/gop-closes-in-on-democrats-in-florida-voter-2107649.html

    Jan. 17, 2012


    Figures released by the Division of Elections today show Florida has 11.2 million voters, with 40.5 percent registered as Democrats and about 36.2 percent as Republicans. The gap of 4.3 percentage points between Democratic and Republican registrations compares to a 5.8-point gap that favored Democrats heading into the 2008 presidential election.




    http://www.pagop.org/2012/01/as-parties-lose-voters-republicans-chip-away-at-democrats-advantage/


    Pennsylvania-January 20th, 2012


    In November 2006, Democrats held a roughly 600,000-voter edge with 3.9 million registered voters to the Republicans’ 3.3 million. The number now stands at 4.1 million Democrats to 3 million Republicans.

    The 2012 election will come down to turnout, he said. With a margin that still tops 1.1 million,
    Democrats have a huge advantage if they can motivate those voters to show up at the polls. But by narrowing that advantage, Republicans put more pressure on the turnout effort, he said.








    [​IMG]
     
    #1975     Aug 21, 2012
  6. jem

    jem

    2008 was the highwater mark for dems

    you are reporting old tired stuff... but if you read your old tired stuff...

    The dems lost 3.19 percent...
    That is massive migration of active voters who care...



    Imagine where that stat is right now in 2012...
     
    #1976     Aug 21, 2012
  7. jem

    jem

    "In 2012, Independents are likely to turn out in their largest numbers in 35 years, and President Obama will need those Independent votes even more than he did in 2008, if he hopes to be re-elected," Third Way analysts Lanae Erickson and Michelle Diggles write in the report.

    (RELATED: Obama's Oops: President Confuses Texas and Kansas -- VIDEO)
    http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/voters-political-parties/52171688/1



    The Democratic decline is especially stark in Iowa and Florida, two early Republican primary states where Democrats have lost significant ground. In Iowa, the number of registered Democrats has declined 7.9 percent since 2008, while the number of registered Republicans has increased by two percent. In the Sunshine State, Democratic registration decreased by five percent, while Republican registration dipped 2.2 percent.

    In New Hampshire, Democratic registration plummeted a whopping 14.6 percent, with Republican registration declining a similarly significant 13.5 percent.

    (RELATED: Poll: Gingrich Riding Tea Party Support in Iowa )

    In every one of the eight battleground states, Democrats lost ground to Republicans. (In Colorado, Republicans saw a larger rate of growth in voter registration than Democrats, 1.8 to 0.9 percent.)
    The report underscores how much different 2012 will be for Obama than 2008. Back then, it was commonplace to hear how many new voters the Obama campaign was registering. Now, it looks like some of those voters, newly disenchanted, are leaving the party rolls.
     
    #1977     Aug 21, 2012



  8. [​IMG]
     
    #1978     Aug 21, 2012
  9. jem

    jem

    posting bullshit polls based on old party registration stats... does not change the fact there has been an massive exodus out of the dems since 2008.



     
    #1979     Aug 22, 2012
  10. jem

    jem

    post ryan...

    even the slanted AP has it close now.

    Associated Press/GfK Obama +1 (jem algo - tba)
    NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama +4 (jem balance algo = Romney plus 3)
    Rasmussen Tracking Romney +2
    Gallup Tracking Romney +2
    Monmouth/SurveyUSA Obama +1 (jem balance algo = Romney plus 3)


    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    note the balance algo.. converts improperly weighted polls to likely voters and a balanced turnout using the 2010 election as the template.

    Disclaimer... based on voter enthusiasm polls there could be a relatively low Dem turnout, and a high R turnout -- in which case Romney would get about 90 to 95% of that turnout. So the balance algo could be shorting Romney from 2 to 5 points.

    "balance algo" and "honest polls" are trademarked by JEM political analytics. copyright 2012.
     
    #1980     Aug 22, 2012