Obama ahead in 19 polls,Romney ahead in 5 Intrade -Obama + 21 !!!!!!!!!! RCP Obama + 126 electoral votes
Rasmussen electoral map Obama + 41 electoral votes http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard Obama leading in most of the toss up states
we only count honest polls which do not slant their sample sizes plus 7 to 20 points for the democrats. if you wish to submit a poll for our consideration as and honest poll... we will be happy to review. Note: We do not count bookie sites with thin markets which got the Supreme Court decision completely wrong.
Are not toss up states inside the margin of error for the polls? Also note... we will see many of these states swing Romney after the convention.
Not likely.Its usually downhill for the challenger after the summer http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/ "The other anomaly has been in the summer months â June, July and August. In these months, the polls have tended to low ball the position of the incumbent partyâs candidate. In July polls, for instance, the incumbent-party candidate has trailed by an average of 4 points in elections since 1968. However, the incumbent-party candidate has actually won these elections by an average of a little more than 3 points. In other words, there has been a seven-point swing on average toward the incumbent partyâs candidate from the July polls until November."
your piece discusses bumps that happens after conventions in July. But we have not had the convention yet. The incumbent gets a bump after the convention. Romney will get the bump and it will stay, partially because of the timing partially because the economy may be going off the cliff the more it looks like Obama is going to win.
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll Thursday, August 09, 2012 The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 43%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided...