Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

I am sure your feel that way... but the current burn rate says othewise.

1. from what I just read I do not think he will hit 750 million - which is massive underperformance given the 10% a year his inflationary policies are causing.

2. even abc news says that it is troubling that Romney is now out raising him.

3. in may most of romneys money came from donations of 250 dollars or under.

 

Nationally I think Obama is +3-5. I also think the incumbent has about a 5-10 point built in lead that the polls don't show.Kerry was beating Bush by a few in some polls from nomination to election and Clinton was beating Bush by around 10 points for months to actually beat the incumbent


While I think Obama is +3-5 nationally,I think he is doing much better electorally

 

Obama +6 is currently 5 points away from the RCP average of Obama +1

Romney +3 is currently 4 points away from the RCP average of Obama +1

The poll that is further off is the Obama +6 one.....

Also it is pretty much common knowledge that votes break towards the Challenger in a weak economy.....

 

Its the opinion of many that anybody who answers 30 + poll questions is already a likely voter


Rasmussen does more then just use likely voters.Its the way they conduct their polls and weigh them by pre preordained assumptions




http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/





Rasmussen’s polls have come under heavy criticism throughout this election cycle, including from FiveThirtyEight. We have critiqued the firm for its cavalier attitude toward polling convention. Rasmussen, for instance, generally conducts all of its interviews during a single, 4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the phone rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones; does not call back respondents whom it misses initially; and uses a computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys. These are cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples.

Rasmussen also weights their surveys based on preordained assumptions about the party identification of voters in each state, a relatively unusual practice that many polling firms consider dubious

 

LOL, this is simple mathematics, the Obama +6 poll throws the average off more than the Romney +3 poll does.....


One skews it 5 points the other one skews it 4 points.....

 

1. you keep repeating the same shit...

that was a 2010 article about many races.

We already told you a hundred times Rasmuessen was tied for most accurate Presidential poll.

2. Huffpo told you that your shit polls will eventually survey likely voters.

3. In the end the issue will be.

what ratios do you use when surveying likely voters.
you will favor polls which skew towards democrats based on 2008 info.
I will favor polls with are inline with current voter surveys which show more people are leaning republican.

 

I dont agree with RCPs average.There is a 9 point gap in their spread and Obama is currently winning 5 of the most recent polls by +6,+2,+2,+4 and +1.



Voters breaking towards the challenger is myth .That doesn't support the fact that incumbents win most presidential elections. Voters stay with likeable incumbents even in bad economies(Reagan,FDR )

 

Oh wait... even your NY Times blog which you just cited...agrees with what I have been saying for months. you are quoting shit for polls.

By NATE SILVER
There are certainly some good reasons to think that the polls could break toward Mitt Romney. For instance, many polls out now were conducted among registered voters; when pollsters switch over to likely voter polls instead — which assess each voter’s probability of actually casting a ballot on Nov. 6 — it is likely that Mr. Romney will gain a point or two. And Barack Obama obviously has a lot of weight to bear from the lukewarm economic recovery.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/

in fact some of the polls you are quoting AK are even more slack than registered voters polls. They are random polls... So you will see a really big kick towards Romney when they go to likely voters.

 

1.You keep repeating the same shit.

2.Multiple good or bad results are better then just 1

3.Rasmuessen was tied for best in 1 poll,I repeat 1 poll the day before the election.Again,multiple results are better for reliability then just one


4.Huffpo did not say most polls will conduct thier surveys in the manner that Rassmussen does or weigh their surveys based on preordained assumptions like Rasmuessen does

5.Current voter surveys and voter registration shows there are more democrats then republicans

 

Nice article,you should have posted all of it.It is long so I'll post some highlights



http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/




Do Presidential Polls Break Toward Challengers?
By NATE SILVER





But one hypothesis you should find less persuasive is the notion that the polls will break toward Mr. Romney just because he is the challenger. It is often asserted that this is the case — that the polls move toward the “out-party” candidate rather than the incumbent. But in my view the empirical evidence — although it is somewhat ambiguous — mostly argues against this idea.





What do we see here? For the most part, the incumbent-party and challenging candidates get a higher share of the vote than they do in the polls, which simply reflects the fact that some number of undecided voter will migrate into their camps.

Perhaps more important, both candidates gain about the same amount of ground relative to the polls. On average since 1968, for instance, the incumbent-party candidate gained 3.5 points between the September polls and his actual performance on Election Day, while the challenger gained 3.9 points.





Most important(And for those who keep repeating that Obama is polling worse then previous incumbents when in fact he is polling much better)



The other anomaly has been in the summer months — June, July and August. In these months, the polls have tended to low ball the position of the incumbent party’s candidate. In July polls, for instance, the incumbent-party candidate has trailed by an average of 4 points in elections since 1968. However, the incumbent-party candidate has actually won these elections by an average of a little more than 3 points. In other words, there has been a seven-point swing on average toward the incumbent party’s candidate from the July polls until November.