Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

Jem will fight your referenced poll numbers tooth and nail in an effort to convince you that the Republicans will surely win. Until, that is, you ask him to put his money where his mouth is. The he makes like The Hound of the Baskervilles -- not a peep. I wonder what Sherlock would conclude.

 

are you chooming?

I am telling you these polls are off...
just like these recent polls.
It is my thesis they start fixing up their sample sizes in the last week.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/01/a-warning-on-the-accuracy-of-primary-polls/

"However, the errors have increased significantly the further you go out. Polls conducted just three days before the primary have missed by an average of about 7 points, and those conducted a week out have missed by about 10.

And the whole period from about one week to two weeks before the primary has been a disaster, with an average miss of about 12 points. That’s just the average, not even the worst of it; quite a few polls, especially in Florida and South Carolina, missed by 20 or more points."

 

Funny you should mention primary polls,check out Rasmussen there

 

Notice that while Rasmuessen had Newt + 21,RCP had Newt + 6,much closer to the final result

 

While Newt got as high as +21 on Rasmussen,he NEVER pulled ahead of Romney on intrade .


When Rasmussen had Newt + 21,Intrade had Romney +12















A quick recap of GOP primary polls a few months out


Rasmussen -Newt +21


RCP average -Newt +6


Intrade -Romney+12

 

Current intrade

 

RCP should kick the highly inaccurate Rasmussen out of their polls imo,it brings down RCPs accuracy from accurate polls


RCP had Newt + 6 because they included Rasmussens ridiculous Newt + 21 poll.If they hadn't included Rasmussen RCP might have had the eventual winner in the lead making their average poll more accurate

 

These polls are all about samples

If you are happy with over sampling dems by 7 -11 points - thats great.

I will bet you that the polls which over sample dems by 7-11 points ... turn out to be off by more than their margin for error.

 

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/



Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate




Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.


The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

 

I know I am right on the mark... when you bring out that same post for the 5th time.

and this has been my response.



http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?
The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.




Here is the list –

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*