The polls are slowly but surely getting worse for Obama, I still think he is winning by maybe 1-2% at this point, but i think that the difference maker is going to be Europe, If europe goes down the U.S. stock market, and Obama will go with it, If Europe manages to bandage their problems till after the election the economy wont change enough to eliminate him, but the trend over the last 6 months still shows that Obama has been getting worse and worse on a weekly basis.... At this point all the polls are basically consolidating to show Obama as a slight 1-3% favourite, where as he had it on cruise control 6 months ago.....\ One thing is for sure, you must atleast be biting your nails over our 5% bet at this point, as I cant possibly see how Obama could win this thing outside of 5% anymore.... There is no way that something will come out on a stiff like Romney that is embarassing enough to give Obama 3-4 points, and there is no way the economy will improve enough to give him those same 3-4 points that he needs......
The polls are showing more people in the country are saying they are republican than democrats. The voter rolls are stale. You know that.
President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are in a near tie in Rasmussen Reportsâ first look at the critical battleground state of Iowa. A new telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters shows Romney earning 47% support to Obamaâs 46%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...al_election/iowa/election_2012_iowa_president The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney attracting 46% of the vote, while President Obama earns 45%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
not the quote. the rolls themselves. they are filled with dead people, fake people, people who are now independents and republicans who have not bothered to make a formal change. Your old school stats vs the recent polls showing more republicans and dems do not reconcile any other way. Its why Florida is purging their rolls. The voter rolls are stale.
Nope.Obama is already leading 3-7 points in many polls from the last month.Like previous incumbents he will pull ahead even farther around debate time and October I am worried about my bet with Lucrum though.I have a feeling I will be out for a month
USA today http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-12/2012-election-swing-states-poll/51844930/1 Since the heady days of 2008, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll finds the number of voters who identify themselves as Democratic or Democratic-leaning in these key states has eroded, down by 4 percentage points, while the ranks of Republicans have climbed by 5 points. Republican voters also are more attentive to the campaign, more enthusiastic about the election and more convinced that the outcome matters. INTERACTIVE: Presidential Poll Tracker PHOTOS: GOP presidential field INTERACTIVE: Play Candidate Match Game The contrasting conditions of the nation's two major political parties â discouraged Democrats and resurgent Republicans â underscore how different Obama's re-election campaign is from the contest four years ago. Consider the math: In 2008, when Obama carried the swing states by 8 percentage points, Democrats there swamped Republicans in party identification by 11 points. Now, that partisan edge has tightened to a statistically insignificant 2 points. Real Clear Politics And the "enthusiasm gap" that helped fuel a Democratic victory last time has turned into a Republican asset. Sixty-one percent of Republicans say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president next year, compared with 47% of Democrats. Among the most enthusiastic are some of the GOP's core voters: conservatives, middle-aged men and those 50 to 64 years old. Those who are least enthused include core Democratic groups that were critical to Obama's election in 2008, including minorities and younger voters. "Enthusiasm is a tremendous benefit," Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus said in an interview. "We're going to be able to mobilize a grass-roots army. It helps us recruit volunteers and run absentee-ballot programs. We can fill rooms with people making phone calls and going door-to-door." He says enthusiasm has shifted to the GOP because voters who were inclined to favor Obama in 2008 now see him as "a fraud."
your polls are mostly oversampling dems by 7-11 points and dems do not lead in population percentage. You wish to deny Rasmuessen when it stays repubs are now leading... but here is gallup. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states As of 2010, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, 29% as Republicans, and 38% as independents.[3] By 2011 Gallup found that Americans identifying as independents had risen to 40 percent. Gallup's historical data show that the proportion of independents in 2011 was the largest in 60 years. This increase came at the expense of Republican identification, which dropped to 27%, while Democratic identification held steady from 2011. Nevertheless, more American independents leaned to the Republican Party when compared to the Democratic Party. Combining leaners with each party's core identifiers, for 2011 the parties ended up tied at 45 percent.[4]