In the previous 2 elections intrade had the winners ahead 5 of the 6 months prior to election day so the manipulation stuff is irrelevant imo
Take a look at the intrade market right now, It has Obama 55 by Romney 40. If Intrade was really sophisticated enough that casinos were making the the market this far out the casinos could simply buy both Obama and Romney for a free 5%, the market would be locked on both sides..... This is the most liquid contract intrade has, and a 5% ARB opportunity exists, If an ARB opportunity that is that simple exists, and no one is taking advantage of that do you really think that there is HUGE money making markets on the Intrade quotes?
The bottom line is that if Rasmuessen polling is correct and there are now more republicans than dems... does Obama have much of a chance?
No one is taking advantage now because the number of shares available to close the spread would bring too small a return on investment for tieing up the money until election day
Apples and Oranges Max.You can close the spread for a guaranteed small profit now .Manipulating the price to artificially low levels presents different opportunities