I did tell you there are more dems then republicans.Difference between me and you is I use actual voter registration numbers rather then a Rasmussen poll. http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/state/gop-closes-in-on-democrats-in-florida-voter-2107649.html Jan. 17, 2012 Figures released by the Division of Elections today show Florida has 11.2 million voters, with 40.5 percent registered as Democrats and about 36.2 percent as Republicans. The gap of 4.3 percentage points between Democratic and Republican registrations compares to a 5.8-point gap that favored Democrats heading into the 2008 presidential election. http://www.pagop.org/2012/01/as-parties-lose-voters-republicans-chip-away-at-democrats-advantage/ Pennsylvania-January 20th, 2012 In November 2006, Democrats held a roughly 600,000-voter edge with 3.9 million registered voters to the Republicansâ 3.3 million. The number now stands at 4.1 million Democrats to 3 million Republicans. The 2012 election will come down to turnout, he said. With a margin that still tops 1.1 million, Democrats have a huge advantage if they can motivate those voters to show up at the polls. But by narrowing that advantage, Republicans put more pressure on the turnout effort, he said. Dec 2011 USA today http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/voters-political-parties/52171688/1 Registered Democrats still dominate the political playing field with more than 42 million voters, compared to 30 million Republicans and 24 million independents http://elkodaily.com/democrats-outp...cle_a53e09de-a78b-11e1-ae8e-001a4bcf887a.html Democrats outpace GOP in voter registrations CARSON CITY (AP) â Nevada Democrats outpaced Republicans in new voter registrations leading up to the state primary. The secretary of state's office Friday reports that from May 1 through May 22 when primary registration closed, Democrats registered 4,322 active voters, compared with 2,254 registered by Republicans. The number of active registered nonpartisans increased by 2,544 during the same time period. Statewide, Democrats now hold a 38,792 voter advantage over Republicans. But the gap is far less than the 100,000 voter edge Democrats had going into the 2008 general election.
I know jem,all polls but 1 is useless to you and your fellow republicans.The only poll that you can consistently refer to to give you hope is Rasmussen which rigs their poll for republicans and is often wrong http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/ November 4, 2010, 10:41 pm Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters. On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports â which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News â badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates. The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEightâs database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998. Moreover, Rasmussenâs polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussenâs polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases â that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued. If one focused solely on the final poll issued by Rasmussen Reports or Pulse Opinion Research in each state â rather than including all polls within the three-week interval â it would not have made much difference. Their average error would be 5.7 points rather than 5.8, and their average bias 3.8 points rather than 3.9. Nor did it make much difference whether the polls were branded as Rasmussen Reports surveys, or instead, were commissioned for Fox News by its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research. (Both sets of surveys used an essentially identical methodology.) Polls branded as Rasmussen Reports missed by an average of 5.9 points and had a 3.9 point bias. The polls it commissioned on behalf of Fox News had a 5.1 point error, and a 3.6 point bias. Rasmussenâs polls have come under heavy criticism throughout this election cycle, including from FiveThirtyEight. We have critiqued the firm for its cavalier attitude toward polling convention. Rasmussen, for instance, generally conducts all of its interviews during a single, 4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the phone rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones; does not call back respondents whom it misses initially; and uses a computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys. These are cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples. Rasmussen also weights their surveys based on preordained assumptions about the party identification of voters in each state, a relatively unusual practice that many polling firms consider dubious since party identification (unlike characteristics like age and gender) is often quite fluid. Rasmussenâs polls â after a poor debut in 2000 in which they picked the wrong winner in 7 key states in that yearâs Presidential race â nevertheless had performed quite strongly in in 2004 and 2006. And they were about average in 2008. But their polls were poor this year. The discrepancies between Rasmussen Reports polls and those issued by other companies were apparent from virtually the first day that Barack Obama took office. Rasmussen showed Barack Obamaâs disapproval rating at 36 percent, for instance, just a week after his inauguration, at a point when no other pollster had that figure higher than 20 percent. Rasmussen Reports has rarely provided substantive responses to criticisms about its methodology. At one point, Scott Rasmussen, president of the company, suggested that the differences it showed were due to its use of a likely voter model. A FiveThirtyEight analysis, however, revealed that its bias was at least as strong in polls conducted among all adults, before any model of voting likelihood had been applied. Some of the criticisms have focused on the fact that Mr. Rasmussen is himself a conservative â the same direction in which his polls have generally leaned â although he identifies as an independent rather than Republican. In our view, that is somewhat beside the point. What matters, rather, is that the methodological shortcuts that the firm takes may now be causing it to pay a price in terms of the reliability of its polling.
One pool hardly... did you notice RCP is featuring a smaller number of polls. Odd that when you look at more polls you see Romney is leading in quite a few. In fact more of the top 10 than Obama. Rasmussen Tracking 5/29 - 5/31 1500 LV 45 46 Romney +1 Gallup Tracking 5/24 - 5/31 3050 RV 45 46 Romney +1 ABC News/Wash Post 5/17 - 5/20 874 RV 49 46 Obama +3 NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 5/16 - 5/20 RV 47 43 Obama +4 FOX News 5/13 - 5/15 913 RV 46 39 Obama +7 IBD/CSM/TIPP 5/9 - 5/16 778 RV 43 40 Obama +3 Mason-Dixon 5/10 - 5/14 1000 LV 44 47 Romney +3 CBS News/NY Times** 5/11 - 5/13 562 RV 43 46 Romney +3 Wash Times/JZ Analytics 5/11 - 5/12 800 LV 43 44 Romney +1 Gallup 5/3 - 5/9 3000 RV 44 47 Romney +3
No no and no. If the sampling protocol they've already described is adhered to, changes in political affiliation will be reflected, there is no need to "do adjusting".
I know why you are logical but we disagree so often. You really do see things through rose colors glasses on the left. You assume these pollsters are attempting to be accurate this time a year. I am quite convinced they are mostly as crookedly as the politicans and groups who hire them.
Well then, who cares? Pollsters are being hired by both left and right, so that's a wash. And, if what you say is true, who are you going to ask to "adjust" the samples, a non-pollster pollster?
You're using gallup twice.Gallup and rasmussen are daily polls that flip flop.Within the last few weeks Obama has been ahead more often then Romney in Gallup The other polls has Obama +3,+4,+7,+4 and Romeny +3,+3 and +1 When it comes to the more important swing states polls... 204 Obama ,76 lean Obama 106 Romney,55 lean Romney
That fact remains that the incumbent should be well ahead of the challenger at this point in the race and Obama is even with Romney within the uncertainty of the polls conducted. Given that unemployment numbers *increased* in May I don't see how Obama expects to be reelected unless he can turn the economy around over the summer and it doesn't seem like he has the skills to do that. Leftist policies don't grow an economy. I'm hoping to see Romney pull away from Obama this summer and be elected with a comfortable margin. The Walker recall election next Tuesday in Wisconsin might give us an example of what is to come.
Liberals are going to get very nasty as their messiah sinks in the polls and the sunset. It's going to be fun watching them implode along with the Democratic Party. This country is waking up and realizing we need to get out of this liberal cradle-to-grave handout government. It's dragging everybody and the country down.