Yikes! I'm seeing an upside breakout here. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...sidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups
It's a long way to November but without a huge boost to the economy, I don't see Obama making much headway. Only if the real estate market surges in the spring and though the summer does Obama have a chance. However, his economic policies including new taxes on mortgages and giving the OK to intrastate on-line non-sports gambling (which is a tax on the poor) will probably keep the economy struggling until he is gone. There are also a few Wildcards that could make or break the election either way: Iran conflict/war/nuclear weapon Sustained Oil price spike Oil pipeline not approved Europe economy collapse/recovery Strong Real Estate rebound Inflation/higher interest rates Trade War with China Military conflict with China Iraq or Afghanistan collapse Successful terrorist attack in U.S. War action without Congressional approval
You know what's funny, how many guys who trade but fail to use what they know trading in real life. Romney is breaking out with momentum against Obama. If this were the Euro, you would buy it, not fade it. But your own emotional bias has you "wanting" to fade it. This is why it's so hard for most people to trade. They just can't trade what they "see", they have to trade what they "think".
But in all fairness, you also have a "position bias", as do many of the rest of us, who can't stand Hopey McChange.
Not as it relates to this data. No one can make the argument that momentum is going Obama's way when Romney has gained 10 pts in 2 weeks. And not only has he gained 10 pts on Obama, but he did that with Obama getting a 5 pt pop in his job approval rating. I'm just reading the tape.
This rally is unsustainable, and there is fundamental data, Mitten's flippiness, that is going to kill this rally. Technicals AND Fundamentals, when the fundi's are verifiable.
Good news bad action RCG. You are only making my case stronger. The fundamentals are strong yet price action is going the other way. Face it RCG, you do not adhere to your trading principles in real life. When the price action changes for Romney, "I" will admit it. That's the kind of trader I am. I won't fade the tape.
Im flat on Mittens, we going to get a C down when general elections as Obama is going to carve him up on his flips. That is, what's left of him after the GOP primaries. I would definitely go for immediate gratification on this one, this rally ain't gonna last.