Rol's Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Rol, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. thanks. that will not be necessary. if you know what you are doing, great. just thought would offer my 2cents as i thought the thread was genuine.

    all the best!
     
    #191     May 9, 2011
  2. Rol

    Rol

    Taking a diversion from my strat.

    Currently long 800 shares EWP iShares MSCI Spain Index Fd
    Average price 42.46.

    [​IMG]
     
    • ewp.jpg
      File size:
      30.4 KB
      Views:
      527
    #192     May 9, 2011
  3. Rol

    Rol

    Long 900 shares

    [​IMG]
     
    • ewp.jpg
      File size:
      422.9 KB
      Views:
      531
    #193     May 9, 2011
  4. you bet more than half of your whole capital on a single name? Wow, what a departure from your previous approach. Having worked in this industry for more than a decade it sounds like the turning point is approaching very quickly...

    I hope not but I cant help this thought...



     
    #194     May 9, 2011
  5. Rol

    Rol

    Yes I know asiaprop, it is a risky venture. I need to get away from trying to out do my system. I was having a hunch that this country ETF was a sure thing. But even if it turns out a winner, it is a practice I must avoid.
     
    #195     May 9, 2011
  6. Rol

    Rol

    EWP showing great promise. I will allow the strat to exit the position when the exit signal is given.

    [​IMG]
     
    • ewp.jpg
      File size:
      422.9 KB
      Views:
      546
    #196     May 9, 2011
  7. you are right, it does not matter the outcome of this one single trade. But sooner or later the inevitable must happen. If there is anything you should have learned from 2008 then that ANYTHING can happen at any time.

    But I do like your thread so far, one of the better quality ones here and you seemed to take a very good risk mgt approach thats why I am surprised to see this trade in your book. Seriously, I can only strongly recommend you to never do it again, you will pay for it otherwise, and you will remember my words. Just my 2 cents, you pull all the strings in your account...


     
    #197     May 9, 2011
  8. It seems for me it is going Down. Be careful.
     
    #198     May 9, 2011
  9. What about the 2% DD rule? Do you apply it?
     
    #199     May 9, 2011
  10. Rol

    Rol

    I don’t apply it as a stop loss amount. If you are referring to risking 2% of capital per trade, that also would not be worthwhile at my current equity level. At an average max dollar cost of $9,000 per position for my current parameters, 2% DD would only be $180. As you can see from my profit distribution I posted over the weekend, I frequently have stocks down 5-10%, or a little less than half as much as are up 5-10%. Thus I would be constantly getting stopped out at a 2% stop loss.

    What I do, since my system is portfolio based, is consider the drawdowns on a portfolio basis, rather than on a stock by stock basis. The market correction between February and March made me realize I was taking a bit too much risk because the intraday DD I experienced touched 10%, which I was not comfortable with, even though my system survived. This is basically the approach I have taken is to just look at my unrealized loss relative to the market conditions, and adjust the parameters to my comfort zone. This probably would not be acceptable to some purists out there, however.

    I know during a black swan my system could suffer a 30% DD, so that is another number I keep up with. I don’t expect my long only strat to be knocking it out of the park during a black swan. I do think it will do better than buy and hold, or me trying to time the market discretionary. I think knowing well in advance of any market decline the maximum number of positions you should ever be holding, can help immensely with controlling risk. The nice thing is I have been able to code this into my strategy.

    I am always thinking of different ways of looking at the markets, and a trend following short strategy would definitely be helpful.
     
    #200     May 9, 2011