Do you believe Romney will win at this point in the race? No bet or anything, I just would like to hear your honest, objective opinion. You can disregard all the polls, you can even have a fondness for Romney, although most don't IMO. Most supporters just hate Obama, Lucrum admits to it with his ABO stance. Again, most of the GOP did not really want Romney, and yet he managed to slip in with his constant 30%, based on some pretty bad competition, granted.
while jem and others are using all kinds of rationalizing to make the popular vote look good for their side its all meaningless. the electoral college is what matters and that would take a miracle for romney to overcome.
I found a couple websites that may shed some light on this. One site was showing that there isn't enough volume at Intrade for arbs to be interested in bringing spreads back into line. One example was the difference between the contracts for "Obama Wins" and "Democrat Wins" which are the same contest. The spread between these contracts swings about 10 points quite regularly. They should be within a tick or two of each other at all times if those markets were efficient. The other site with the word "Harvard" in the name professes to have an expert prognostigation model that is predicting an Obama victory with a near 100% probablility. It seems many of the fools who trade at Intrade follow this clown and are driving the contract to very unrealistic levels.
I don't have an Intrade account, but it might be worth making a small bet on Romney based on that "Harvard" model. Given it's supposed historical accuracy.
FWIW, the Intrade charts look pretty reasonable: <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3635977>
Here is the website. I guess it is Princeton, not Harvard in the name. Maybe the liberals here can go put some money on Obama at Intrade. http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/24/predictions-a-brief-comparison-with-intrade Starting on August 3rd, I have given the Obama re-elect probability in a very narrow range, between 87% and 91%. The same algorithm would have given a similar probability as far back as June/July. It is relatively unchanging because re-election races move so little during a campaign season.
This is the spread between those two charts. <img src="http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/blogs/moneybox/2012/09/24/the_obama_death_spread_on_intrade_illustrates_financial_market_inefficiency_/1348515172214.jpg.CROP.rectangle3-large.jpg">
Polling has gotten much more accurate,that is why righteis have to use polling from 32 years ago to try to make their point
Intrades political election accuracy Bush /Kerry Obama /McCain 2008 House 2008 Senate 2010 House(From July until election day they had Republicans taking the House over 50) 2010 Dems to control the Senate was always over 50 Wisconsin recall( Had Walker over 50 the life of the contract)