As of 2016, it was estimated that 3.87 million professional software developers worked in the US[1] out of a total employed workforce of 152 million[2] (2.54%). <3% is most in a post-fact world.
Thats pretty much in line with my hunch. Add 7% more from the active labor force that are intelligent enough to pick up on the math/stats/CS required to even understand basic AI models but currently work in other disciplines and you get to roughly 10%. But anyway, whether its 5, 10, 15, or 20% , what are the rest gonna do? This is such a huge ethical dilemma that some of the brightest minds even in the IT world are unsure about how to solve. Maybe a basic income for everyone is not such a far-fetched idea. At least it is seriously considered in those circles as possible solution. What is sure is that things are gonna fundamentally change in the next 10-15 years.
50 to 100 years away. rotflmao. Our leadership. http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/24/robots-could-threaten-four-out-of-10-us-jobs-by-2030.html Mnuchin on robots taking US jobs: 'It's not even on our radar screen ... 50-100 more years' away Almost 4 in 10 U.S. jobs are at risk from being taken over by robots, according to the latest report from consultancy firm PwC. The analysis released Friday suggested that 38 percent of U.S. jobs could be at high risk of automation by the early 2030s, higher than the U.K. (30 percent), Germany (35 percent) and Japan (21 percent). The 15-year timeline does not appear to be shared by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, however. In comments made to Axios Media on Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he was not worried about the mass displacement of U.S. workers by robots and could be a century before a labor crisis eventuates. "It's not even on our radar screen ... 50-100 more years," Mnuchin said. He added that he was "not worried at all" about robots displacing humans in the near future. "In fact I'm optimistic". Business leaders, such as billionaire investor Mark Cuban, were surprised by Mnuchin's indifference. On Twitter, Cuban retweeted the Axios story on Friday, with the comment: "Wow." @mcuban: "Wow" The PWC report said although the U.S. and U.K. shared similar economic makeups, the wider financial services sector in the U.S. is more susceptible to automation. "The jobs of these U.S. retail financial workers are assessed by our methodology as being significantly more routine, and so more automatable than the average finance sector job in the UK, with its greater weight on international finance and investment banking," the report read. PWC said financial and insurance workers in the U.S. focus mostly on the domestic retail market that requires lower educational levels than City of London specialists. "Further analysis of the data suggests that the key difference is related to the average education levels of finance professionals being significantly higher in the U.K. than the U.S.," it said. Robots working with man, work place Tomohiro Ohsumi | Bloomberg | Getty Images PWC said risks of robots replacing manual roles appear highest in sectors such as transportation and storage (56 percent), manufacturing (46 percent) and wholesale and retail (44 percent). How total employment will be affected is not clear to PwC, which noted that the rise of artificial intelligence and robotics would, in itself, create new roles. PWC argued that in general, wage packets should also rise as the robots perform jobs more quickly. "Average pre-tax incomes should rise due to the productivity gains, but these benefits may not be evenly spread across income groups," it said.
Yes sure, I fully agree. It was absolutely fascinating to watch the House Committee on Cyber Security this past week (it messed up my entire work day next say as I watched the live stream from 1am - 330am HK time). Some cyber security experts that from the private security industry were invited to share their thoughts and they all agreed that Russia's electronic hacking and spy capabilities are by far superior to the one of the United States, they likened the US sitting in a glasshouse and made a strong point that any sort of retaliation would make the US lose this cyber war by several arm's lengths against Russia (they recommended a 2-tier approach, a) strengthening defense mechanism, and b) engagement with Russia on a diplomatic level). It was absolutely fascinating the amount of details and supporting facts that were presented and gave a glimpse where we really are in terms of technological advancements in the IT sector. (I believe the US and many of its allies completely misread the future strategic landscape in that the US and its allies still invest way too much in conventional weapons system, when Russia for years has almost pulled all its resources into cyber intelligence). Sorry this goes a bit off topic but it brought up technology that I never considered possible in today's age.
Lol, Mnuchin ? The same guy who would sell his own grandma for an extra buck in the pocket? Look at that guy, greed is literally written all over his face and when he appears in front of microphones with his weird, pretentious boyish/childlike voice to appease people I just wanna punch this guy in the face. This is exactly the part of the mafia I have been talking about, people who know exactly the truth but have no qualms at falsifying it in order to maximize gains and accumulate power at the top. He is not concerned about robots/AI taking over and thinks its 50-100 years away? This is a member of the administration? It is embarrassment to the American people to be represented by such individual. Thankfully he does not hold any IT related resort and only decides how all your tax dollars are spent and how much more debt to take on, lol.
It's a tough question no doubt. On the one hand I hate inefficiency and seeing workers sit on their ass 'cuz their protected by the unions. On the other, they still do some work and the corporation absorbs that cost. If they're sitting on their ass at home I absorb that cost. I scoffed at the idea of a basic income but apparently it makes more financial sense once you scrap all the other welfare programs. It feels supremely emasculating though to the point of disgust where I'd be OK with paying for someone for sitting on their ass. I'd rather take a bet on peoples ability to adjust/adapt. Unemployment gets to most people's psyche and they ultimately end up finding something or starting something. We have entire industries which have become fully autonomous and we're still here. I could only advocate a basic income for the less fortunate (disabled/old/children). Or who knows, we could actually push for accountability in education and raise those CS numbers.
Many people won't sit on their ass. You may just as well see renaissance in spirituality, art, exploration, invention, discovery, skilled crafts, humanity and environmental care.
Automation started entering the airline cockpit 40 years ago, and yet today we still have 2 pilots sitting in the front of the plane, even on sleepy long-haul overnight cargo flights across the Atlantic Ocean. Think about how long it took cellphones or internet technology to become "flawless" and rolled out to the entire country in a highly reliable manner....at least 20 years in both cases. In the case of automated trucking/cars, the physical risks to millions of people from technological error are greater than most of what has been introduced so far - and if I'm not mistaken, pilot programs for this trucking technology have just started in Nevada. So using the cell-phone example above, today we are in the equivalent of year 1985 in terms where the automated trucking technology rollout is compared to where cell phones were. Think how many years later it took for the entire nation to readily adopt cellphones, and how long it took for the technology to become flawless (I'd argue it still as not, but unlike automated trucking, cell phones won't kill anyone so we accept these minor glitches 30 years later). Considering the massive risk to life that requires perfect technology, and where we are currently in terms of its rollout, we are honestly supposed to believe that in less than 10 years the entire North American trucking industry will be automated? No way.
I'm a cynical realist. I'd be content with more useless crappy products/websites/trends that keeps people employed.