Anyone follow elliot wave theory here? What does his theory say for this market over the next 6 months. Thanks.
Elliot wave is totally sujective as to how you count the waves. I use it in my trading with Advanced GET and wave three down minimum ojectives were met Thurs. , but it doesn't mean it has ended, just minimum zone was hit and an ABC correction could follow. But I've seen another wave count that says my (and Prechter's ) count could be wrong with Thurs. the bottom of the B wave and C wave up to correct the 12345 series that started May of last year. But we won't know until about 1 to 2 weeks from now.
2 weeks to wait gee As for me I will be buyer now my crashindex is at -5 and is out of the -6 crash level. Frankly on upper scale level it is more difficult to predict with precision that's why I prefer to stick with day to day trading.
It says that it wouldn't have finally selected the matching "wave count" out of the thousands of possibilities until six months from now. But never fear, EW is always 100% accurate in hindsight
Prechter has published predictions that were horribly wrong before, he said the great bull market was over and we should buy gold and expect the end of western economies in 1995! Max
In defence of Prechter, he has admitted be has been wrong about the extent of the bubble,after all who did really think it would go as high as the markets did? Prechter is pretty humble and very easy to talk to. He is also very self educated which he admits the markets always keep him on his toes. As for people who put gurus on a pedastal, these are the very people who don't think statistics apply to the market (Prechter states probabilities in every report) and want to be hand held and not use his work as a template for your own work. If he's right 75% of the time some people only speak of the 25%. I'm only right 60% on my trades but with a .75 stop and target of 1.5 ES points I make a living. That's called statistics. What was the quote in Boiler Room , nobody want's to work for it any more , there's no honor in that job at mickey D's.
EW is garbage. It's another of those mind games. Completely left to interpretation. I read his book and sincerely, it makes no sense. It's like saying: the markets go up and down in steps but the way you count the steps is left to interpretation. In effect, you have a 50% chance of being right or wrong. You will rarely be right on cue though without any foresight.
I wouldn't say it's garbage, but it is too subjective for most investors to use as a trading strategy. It is a great reference as to knowing what is happening currently. I used Ewave to call the 11/29/02 high of 28.79 by 21 cents. http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB00571&read=2470 Here's my current count, together with an old count from 2001 which has been right on, try doing that with any other FA or TA. http://www.geocities.com/wallstreetmoney1/Ewave.html
Stock777, I've made many eroneous counts. Mostly small waves. Either way I don't trade off EW because they are unpredictable and can send you in the poor house if you miss a wave. But I don't know of any other TA that can give you long term predictions many years ahead.